Monday, April 9, 2012

Evaluations for April 12-14 Severe Weather

If you live in Kansas or Oklahoma and want to know what I think of your town's threat of the severe weather risk, you can comment here or on our Facebook page at

Lower Level Jet Stream Forecasted to Scream

The Lower Level Jet stream is forecast to make a 50knot entrance to the severe weather event late this week.

Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Issued Today

Overall Severe Weather Threat

Hail Threat

Tornado Threat

Damaging Wind Threat
West Oklahoma is under a moderate risk for severe weather today, with hail being the main risk alongside lower threats of tornadoes and damaging winds.
Instability is expected to be fairly high, with values reaching above 2250 j/kg. This should set the stage for active thunderstorms today.
These storms will be ongoing into the evening. With a fairly intense hodograph, funnel clouds are not out of the question with today's storms. These storms will most likely be single celled, possibly discrete supercells based solely on the threats today.


Forecast Discussion: April 9, 2012

Hotspot of the day: South Plains
A moderate risk of severe weather was issued for the Southern Plains today, making it worthy of today's hotspot. It looks like a storm system will slide east, with a stationary front out ahead of the system and a trough in tow. Expect the storms to fire along the front and what may be the equivalent of a dry line, based on the positioning of these risk areas. The main risk is for hail and damaging winds, while a tornado threat is also somewhat elevated.

A massive storm system will drop rain and snow today in the Northeast, making for slick conditions across the region. No severe weather is expected.

Ohio Valley
Some isolated showers and storms are possible today. A few could be on the strong side.

West Coast
The west coast may get in on some rain as a storm system rubs against the coast, which may drop some heavy rains.

Triple Threat of Severe Weather this Weekend

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined 3 areas of severe weather for Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this upcoming week and weekend. More interesting is the fact that these areas are overlapping in the situation, meaning we could have severe storms rolling over the same areas again and again.

This will basically be the set up for the cold front. It will sit in west Texas and the panhandle of Oklahoma. As we progress through the severe weather days, the warm front will drift north, increasing the length of the cold front, which at this point will become almost stationary.
Seeing as jet stream winds will be screaming along at 100 knots+, combined with substantial moisture differences and mid level shearing, this environment may be very ripe for tornadoes.