Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Short Range Forecast Discussion (For Aug. 20-21)- (Issued August 17)

This is a short range forecast discussion for the period August 20-21. This discussion has been reviewed and approved by The Weather Centre for the potential for heavy rain and possible severe weather.
The first image will be of 7 AM CDT on Saturday, August 20.
Hour 72
The GFS is forecasting a couple clusters of more intense storms to appear in Kansas. The 6 hour precipitation could surpass .5 inches, which is considered a lot of rain in a short range of time for some cases. It looks like this may be the result of a low pressure stationed around the Texas/New Mexico region. However, because it is fairly long range out, we cannot be sure.
Hour 78
That cluster of precipitation will move northward as another region of low pressure develops in south Missouri. Again, we cannot be sure if that is the cause of the rainfall. Either way, a potentially bowing segment of rain and storms could move northward into West Iowa and East Nebraska. It may have weakened a bit at that point.
Hour 84
At the 84 hour point, several strong clusters of thunderstorms erupt in Iowa and especially in Illinois. These storms could be dangerous as they will be in the 7 PM CDT timeframe on Sunday, meaning the day's instability built up will fuel the storms.

We will brief you again on the situation later tomorrow, but we will not have posting abilities from 5 pm to 8 pm.


I apologie for not posting today, but I am debating what to issue on this blog.
After being confronted with the issue of inconsistent discussions (severe weather discussions, tropical discussions, etc.), we are debating this issue over the entire day. Tomorrow we will be back posting with our new plan together.
Until then, there is a risk of severe weather in the Plains, and a very small risk in the lower Great Lakes as a weak cold front moves into a moderately unstable atmosphere.