Wednesday, March 30, 2011

March 30 Forecast Discussion (Until April 4)

A low pressure system will be moving offshore tomorrow morning, setting the stage for an expected major snowstorm in the Northeast. Accumulations could be as high as 12 inches. On the backside of that low will be a string of 3 other low pressures. That cold create some instability in the Gulf of Mexico, but nothing major to be expected.
Dry high pressures will continue to torture the Midwest and Great Lakes, making temperatures fitting for mid-winter. That cold weather will extend into the Central and Southern Plains, though likely not as intense. However, it will likely still be an issue.
Out west into the Rockies, rain will occur in most elevations. However, there will be snow in the highest elevations. That will stem from another string of low pressures stretching from Canada into Mexico. That will also create some sprinkles around the Dakotas, hampered by the high pressures. Those sprinkles will gain momentum into the day as the low pressure system moves closer to the area.
Out in the wet and wild West, on the coast, a low pressure system will be shooting into Canada, dragging rain on its backside. The Northwest will be affected by this. However, two high pressures will be intervening to keep some areas dry for at least a morning.
A severe weather threat will exist in Florida only.

There will be only a small chance for severe weather going into April 1st. The main threat will likely only be small hail and periodical gusty winds.
A slingshot of low pressures will create chaos in the Northern Plains. It gives me a headache looking at all of it, so here's the image to decipher yourself. This image is for April 1.
There's a lot to talk about, but in the interest of time, i will give a summary.
4 days away, we can expect a developing severe weather event that will lead into Day 5, when a significant severe weather outbreak is still predicted. We will keep an eye out.

March 30 Severe Weather Bulletin

CAPE values have dropped after the passage of a small squall line, meaning the atmosphere is stabilizing.
That said, it can be expected the storms about to move onshore will either slightly strengthen, sustain at their current strength, or drop in strength.
All in all, the severe storms seem to have maxed out.
I am expecting elevated storms at best.

Severe Weather Center coming soon

The page is down for major renovations and will be back online by 8 pm CDT tonight.