Monday, January 16, 2012

Pattern Change Update 1/16/12

I've about had enough with these models predicting the warmth to continue- even if they may be right.
I think it's time we issue a forecast using our own instinct, not using the long range models as a crutch.


February will see colder shots enter the country with spots of snow frequently interrupting. As the polar vortex becomes more and more unstable, as shown by the not-fully connected vortex as well as erratic PV (potential vorticity) movements. I can very well see snowstorms come though the East US- it's a favorable outcome based on the weakening Nina, unstable VP (polar vortex)/PV, and the Alaskan vortex. It is currently displaced, thus the active storm track. But it is a very encouraging sign to see it be able to be displaced.


March will be THE cold month for spring. At this point, the atmosphere will have to go ballistic. With the stratosphere in cahoots, the VP/PV all unorganized, the La Nina possibly fading into neutral or El Nino conditions, an atmospheric coup into spring will throw off everything. I'm expecting a VERY active storm track, with severe weather abound as this huge mash of messed up indices tries to figure itself out. The mountains will see their snowfall when the Pacific gets ramped up in the midst of this big jumble.

For both February and March, i am using 2 pieces I have come to wonder if they can be related to weather:
I. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
II. Everything attempts to reach equilibrium.

Using these two theories and applying them to weather would make for a revolutionary change in FEB/MAR. But that would be if everything is unequal. Climatology has nothing on the Pacific and Arctic. You may think this winter has not been equal (climatologically, yes), but up in the stratosphere and in Alaska, factors have been working and have attained a level of equilibrium that just so happened to be favorable for warm temperatures. If we can get a stratospheric warming or a permanent displacement of the Alaskan Low, I might as well batten down the hatches, because the snow will come and make itself known in that scenario.

So there you have it- my forecast for the rest of winter, totally unassisted by weather models.

Abbreviations Used

VP- Polar Vortex
PV- Potential Vorticity
WSW- Winter Storm Watch
WWA- Winter Weather Advisory
WX- Weather
NWS- National Weather Service
SPC- Storm Prediction Center
HPC- Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
NHC- National Hurricane Center
WFO- Weather Forecasting Office

Special Pattern Change Update Coming out at 5:00 PM CST

COMPLETELY unassisted by computer models.
This is the forecast i'm sticking to.