Thursday, December 22, 2011

Stratospheric Warming Could be Game Changer; Back-Loaded Winter Still In Question

We are seeing the ECMWF and GFS models pick up on some major stratospheric warming.
As a pre-note, the images we show you are the examples as close to the 100mb level that we could find. Keep in mind that levels above the 10mb images we are about to show will experience more significant warming than what we are showing. It's all about if the warming occurs closer to the 100mb level.

Is the Pattern Change right around the corner?

Initial 10 millibar Stratosphere Analysis

Forecast 10 day temperatures at 10 millibar level in the Stratosphere.
In the first image, we are seeing the analysis of the stratosphere from the ECMWF model. At this point, models do not matter as it is only an analysis. Notice how abundant the cold air is in dark blue as we see a deep low pressure system forming a deep vortex around the North Pole, keeping the cold air in. This technically is a signal of how strong the Arctic Oscillation is. When the AO is positive, there is a strong vortex holding in the cold air way up north in the North Pole, as we see in the analysis. The AO is in a positive phase right now, so we are apparently seeing the AO in action.
Skip ahead 10 days. The second image is for the North Pole at the same 10 millibar stratosphere level as was in the analysis, but 10 days out in the forecast. We now see a building ridge and warmer temperatures trying to force their way northward into the North Pole. It is being forced northward, rather than simply bumping around, as we can see the very tight isobars where the blue and light orange meet in the little crosshair symbol. The strong low pressure remains in place, but the coldest air and the low itself have been displaced more southward as a result of the pressing warmer temperatures. If these warmer temperatures are able to eke out their place in the North Pole and effectively kick out the deep vortex, we would see a negative AO and NAO, both of which would contribute to snow and cold over the East US. However, looking back a few days before this 10 day forecast, I found that these warmer temperatures are actually moving westward in a square dance-like routine. The warm air mass is weakening, but the deep cold is eroding as well. Notice the weak warming in the lower portion of the graphic. We find this weak warming area to also be moving in a circle, in similar fashion to how the main warming area is moving in a counter clockwise circle around the deep cold region.
What does this second, weaker warming area mean? If this second warming area comes to verify, it would be getting stronger as it moves counter clockwise. This would mean that there would be two warming regions attacking the deep low pressure and cold in the North Pole region. It does appear that these two warming regions are having an effect on the deep low. The question is will the low be displaced enough for the warming regions to take over control, effectively changing the pattern into a cold and snowy one? We aren't sure, but here's a reassuring piece: Notice the very weak, disorganized warming area on the upper part of the initial 10mb stratosphere analysis image. That warming area actually becomes much stronger and is the same warming section that we see in the 10 day forecast, with that warming section still in the upper-middle part of the image. The fact that the warming area forecasted in the 10 day forecast is currently present is reassuring news, as it signals that the piece required to 'damage' the cold regime in the North Pole is already there in the analysis.
Stay on the lookout, snow lovers. This could be the break you have been waiting for.

On a side note: Reputed meteorologist Tom Skilling in Chicago put out an article today, noting how at least a couple winters with comparably low snowfall to this year turned into above normal snowfall with a very back-loaded winter. This could mean that the back end of the winter will be 'vindication', so to speak, for many forecasters' forecasts (including ours).

Have a safe and happy holidays. We will not be publishing posts for much of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Personal Winter Forecast: St. Louis MO, Guttenberg IA, Spring Valley NY

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI

Precipitation: Above Normal (+0.5 inches or more)
Temperature: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (+2 inches or more)

St. Louis is projected to receive a wet winter after a very wet fall. That said, snowfall should be above normal as well. Temperatures should end above normal, especially after the slow start to winter.

GUTTENBERG, IOWA

Precipitation: Above Normal
Temperature: Ending Around Normal*
Snowfall: Below Normal
*Confidence is lower than normal

Iowa may be able to receive enough cold shots during JAN and FEB to make for around normal temperatures. Precipitation should be above normal, but too slow a start to winter may make for below normal snowfall.

SPRING VALLEY, NEW YORK

Precipitation: Above Normal
Temperature: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

A wet start to fall should continue through winter to make for above normal precipitation, snowfall. However, the warm fall will also continue through winter.

Personal Winter Forecast: Milwaukee WI, Albany NY, Fort Atkinson WI

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN

Precipitation: Slightly Above Average
Temperature: Ending up Around Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal

The bad winter start has had an effect on snowfall and will end up below normal. Temperature should end up around normal while a wet fall should make for an above normal precipitation.
ALBANY, NEW YORK

Precipitation: Above Normal
Temperature: Above Normal (+1 degrees or more)
Snowfall: Above Normal (+2 inches or more)

The October Snowstorm for the Northeast appears to be a signal that the Northeast may be the snow haven this year, so precipitation and snowfall are angled to an above average view. However, after a very warm fall, winter may follow suit.

FORT ATKINSON, WISCONSIN

Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Temperature: Ending Around Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal

After a dismal start to winter, Fort Atkinson should end up with below normal snowfall in the end. Temperatures should cancel each other out as cold and warmth battle for their rightful place. Precipitation should end up slightly above normal after a wet fall.

Personal Winter Forecast: Columbus OH, Richmond VA, Hays KS

COLUMBUS, OHIO

Precipitation: Well Above Normal (Records Broken)
Temperature: Ending Around Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal*
*Confidence is lower than normal.

The Ohio Valley has broken records for the wettest year, and that should continue through the winter. Warm and cold should make for normal temperatures and slightly above normal snowfall after a dismal winter start.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA

Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Temperature: Ending Above Normal (+0.5 degrees or more)
Snowfall: Below Normal

Richmond is not in the best spot for storm tracks. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures through the next few months. Thus, snowfall will also be below normal.

HAYS, KANSAS

Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal*
Temperature: Ending Normal or Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal
*Confidence is lower than normal.

Hays, Kansas is in a favorable position for storms based on the latest cut-off lows moving throughout the region. However, if the pattern change comes out as expected, this may change. Either way, snowfall should end slightly above normal. The same is possible for precipitation, but confidence is lower than normal. Temperatures may end up from normal to slightly above normal. 

Tornado Watch #899 - December 22, 2011

this watch has been issued for the potential of the squall line to the west strengthening. Stronger storms will be moving into the area. As the day begins to start, daytime heating will add a bit of strength to the storms as well. We are in a rush, so here's the link because we cannot explain it too well right now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0899.html

Tornado Watch #898 - December 22, 2011

A squall line is currently moving eastward across Louisiana and Mississippi. It appears that several factors will be helping this squall line possibly strengthen. We are in a big rush of things so we unfortunately cannot exaggerate right now. Here's the link to the SPC watch: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0898.html

Tornado Warning- Tornado Detected- Lockport, Louisiana


891 
WWUS54 KLIX 221617
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1017 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

LAC057-089-109-221645-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0169.000000T0000Z-111222T1645Z/
ST. CHARLES LA-TERREBONNE LA-LAFOURCHE LA-
1017 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CST FOR NORTHERN
LAFOURCHE...NORTHEASTERN TERREBONNE AND SOUTHERN ST. CHARLES
PARISHES...

AT 1018 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOCKPORT...OR 6 MILES EAST OF HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RACELAND...MATHEWS AND DES ALLEMANDS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 2951 9058 2962 9068 2989 9047 2966 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 227DEG 38KT 2960 9057

$$

Personal Winter Forecast: Linden VA, Fort Wayne IN, Valparaiso IN

LINDEN, VIRGINIA

Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Temperature: Above Normal (+0.5 degrees and higher)
Snowfall: Below Normal (At least -3 inches)


Linden is in a bad boat for snowfall and precipitation, as the CPC is forecasting below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Thus, snowfall should be below normal.

FORT WAYNE, INDIANA

Precipitation: Above Normal (+1 inch or more)
Temperature: Above Normal (+0.5 degrees or more)
Snowfall: Above Normal (At least +3 inches)

Fort Wayne should eventually get above normal snowfall, thanks to the Great Lakes which should eventually start really going on the lake effect machine. Temperatures may, however, end up above normal. We are anticipating precipitation to be above normal as places close to Indiana, like Ohio, have broken precipitation records.

VALPARAISO, INDIANA

Precipitation: Above Normal (+1.5 inches or more)
Temperature: Normal or Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Well Above Normal (+10 inches or more)*
*Confidence is slightly lower than usual.

Valparaiso will get hit hard by lake effect snow if everything turns out alright in the pattern change. Thus, precipitation should end above normal. Temperatures may wobble out to normal or slightly above normal.