Monday, January 31, 2011
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 ...DANGEROUS MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 010530- /O.UPG.KLOT.BZ.A.0001.110201T1800Z-110203T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.BZ.W.0001.110201T2100Z-110202T2100Z/ WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK- LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD- LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO... OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC... WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER... FOWLER 320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 /420 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011/ ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REPLACES THE BLIZZARD WATCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. * HAZARDS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDER SNOW MAY BE PRESENT. * IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAVEL LIKELY BECOMING VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL SO HEAVILY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THAT PLOWS MAY BE UNABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE SNOW...WITH MANY SIDE STREETS AND UNTREATED ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ SHEA
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
Looking at various models and ensembles, I have concluded that the possibility for the storm firing north is a potential, but not as much as it would be to be favorable.
The ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS models are now all in agreement that a very strong low pressure system will head up somewhere in the Ohio Valley after crossing through South Illinois.
While the NOGAPS is farthest south in this transistion north, it is also the most powerful.
The ECMWF and GFS seem to be in very good agreement with each other over what a current track would be.
The ECMWF is northerly, but it is quite a contender.
I will keep in some CMC model, since it has been forecasting this pattern for the last couple days.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Monday, January 24, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Above, 6 hours later, the deepening low appears to be pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, thus enhancing snowfall totals in the Southern Great Lakes.
Above, another 6 hours further, the storm begins to what may be collapsing, and the rain/snow line pushes up. However, most areas remain in an area of snow.
Above, still 6 hours further, the storm becomes defined in the Ohio Valley, bringing rain with it. Still, back in the Midwest, a band of heavy snow is thought to be occurring in North Illinois, with widespread light to moderate snow over the entire Midwest.
Finally, in the final 6 hours, the low moves off. The Midwest remains in the snow, and it slowly decreases in intensity throughout the next 18-24 hours.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
So in the first image above, we can see the jet stream setting up in the Siberian Express format. The jet stream takes a dive in the West Coast, straying south and keeping both them and the North cold.
The above image is of the projected jet stream position.