Friday, October 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas' Projected Path

Image by NHC. This is the 10pm CDT forecast for this storm.

Today's current water vapor imagery

We can see what looks like a jet stream pattern down south curling up north into New England. Not enough moisture is evident for any rain to form, especially in South Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Shary's projected path

Image by the NHC.

Tropical Storm Tomas' projected path

Image by the NHC.


Hurricane TOMAS, in the Atlantic, is projected to become a MAJOR HURRICANE by the end of the next few days. It is forecast to be heading towards the GULF COAST STATES. MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW TO EVACUATE.

Special Weather Warning

A Special Weather Warning has been issued for the following area:
-All of West Central US from Tennessee, to Indiana, to Pennsylvania, to South Carolina

At 4:19pm, all of these areas were under either a FREEZE WARNING, FREEZE WATCH, FROST ADVISORY.

People in these areas are advised to bring in ALL SENSITIVE PLANTS.
Sensitive Plants WILL DIE outside tonight if left uncovered.

This will expire at 10:00am Saturday morning.

2011 Hurricane Season Long Range Outlook

Hello everyone! This is the Long Range 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook. As we can see the impacts above, including land. But today, we will focus solely on the Atlantic and Pacific.

Right now, we are in a moderate La Nina, and that La Nina is expected to get stronger.
So, we can see the active tropics in the middle area between Africa and South America, and more wet in the Area above the South America land into the Caribbean.
I am going to argue for the Atlantic that the entire area of the Gulf through the Caribbean lining the South American countries are typically active, however this season is startlingly below normal. I am not going to mark any major increase in hurricane activity.
The Atlantic should see a relatively weak hurricane season into early next year, then likely staying at that or either increasing or decreasing in intensity.

For the Pacific, we see a La Nina is associated with quieter tropics. This is of no surprise- there hasn't been a system in weeks that has had modest potential to become a hurricane. I predict it will remain quiet into the end of the hurricane season this year, with modest strengthening into next year. Fluctuations will happen, and times of rest will occur.

This will be the ONLY Long Range 2011 Hurricane season outlook. A new outlook may be issued early next year.


The above image is from the National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic: Tropical Storm Shary has formed. It will be curling around, narrowly missing Bermuda, then be thrown out towards Europe where it will become post-tropical, also known as not a tropical system anymore.

Also in the Atlantic, a system riding the Northern area of the South American coast has a high likelihood to form over the next couple of days. It looks like it may be a big player, and, if all goes right for the storm, the Gulf could be in for its first hurricane/tropical system to make a hard landfall.

Pacific: None