Monday, June 17, 2013

Short Range Risk Analysis - June 17, 2013

This Short Range Risk Analysis covers the time period from now until the next 3-5 days. Confidence in this full analysis is Average.

Overall Synopsis
Tropical Depression TWO has developed in the western Caribbean and is expected to make landfall in the next couple of days. Multiple severe weather chances will arise over the next few days, although their significance is in question as the active weather we have seen in the last few weeks starts to stagnate.

Severe Weather Outlook: Low/Medium Activity
Confidence: Above Normal
Today and tomorrow will feature severe weather chances in the Southern Plains, with Montana on watch the day after tomorrow. Despite these areas of concern, the next 3-5 days does not feature any areas where severe weather is expected to reach intense levels. Activity in this timeframe is thus described as Low/Medium.

Heat Outlook: Medium Activity
Confidence: Below Normal
Medium range forecast calls for the development of high pressure over the Plains as a closed low system enters the Pacific Northwest. Multiple sources indicate this ridge will arise in the next 2-3 days, extending into the full 3-5 day period of this outlook. The intensity of this ridge in its beginning days remains in question, leaving confidence in the below normal stage. The presence of this ridging pattern will allow heat to move further into the Plains during this timeframe, however, meaning the Heat outlook is at Medium activity.

Tropical Outlook: Low Activity
Confidence: Average
Tropical Depression TWO has developed in the Atlantic in the last few hours, with its origin to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Intensity of this depression is low, as it is only a depression. This system is expected to maintain its tropical depression status until and after landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. After departing the Yucatan Peninsula moving west-northwest, the National Hurricane Center indicates strengthening into a tropical storm is possible before a second landfall on Mexico is observed. While I am skeptical of this storm strengthening after its first landfall, I am confident that the United States will not be affected, thus the tropical outlook has a Low activity forecast.