Monday, February 6, 2012

Why I am Throwing in my Towel for Winter 2011-2012

It's official- I am throwing in my towel for the rest of winter 2011-2012.
Before anyone says anything, I firmly stand by statements that I meant when I said that there ought to have been more cold and snow this month- some indices were favorable and it just didn't happen.

Over the winter, I have been using a very wide variety of indices. What I have found is that some were favorable for snow at certain times while others weren't, and it's been going that way for some time. The more frequent -NAO/-AO is a plus, as was the +PNA, but an unfavorable MJO, among other things, crashed the party. Now, with the PNA going back negative and the NAO to stay around neutral, the window of opportunity we looked to have in February has been shut.

For the more recent range, the models have indeed been showing some cold weather entering the country. But in my gut, the PNA/NAO/EPO/WPO unfavorable combo are not pointing to a good outcome. This is put up against a favorable MJO, but even that can't be trusted as the Phase 8-Phase 1 looks to be moderate strength at best, rendering the cold's power weaker.

Thanks for a great winter season everyone. While it certainly wasn't the best, it was fun while it lasted.
If you have any questions, you can ask below. Other than the occasional indices update, this is about it for winter postings.


EDIT: I am not ruling out a few snowstorms or progressive cold shots.