**This post is dedicated to the 19 firefighters who perished in the Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona.**
The threat of a tropical cyclone landfalling on the United States is quickly rising for July and August.
For August, I discussed my anticipation of a steady Phase 2 and 3 MJO pulse. Using the chart above to look at the Phase 2 panel (left center) and Phase 3 panel (bottom left), we see that the East Coast tries to attract some tropical attention, especially in Phase 2. The eastern Caribbean also lights up in Phases 2 and 3, but it is the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean that retains its mark as the 'hotspot' for Atlantic development. Towards Phase 3 we see the African tropical wave system start back up, but I'm a little skeptical of its absence in Phase 2. Regardless, it's apparent that Phases 2 and 3 would allow some good chances at tropical development in the Atlantic.
The GFS Ensembles also show the normalized spread of sea level pressure between ensemble members, with individual members' high and low pressure areas shown in red (low pressure) or blue (high pressure) below. The abnormally high spread among ensemble members, as well as the presence of low pressure marks in the vicinity of this high spread tells me the ensembles could be hinting at the presence of a tropical wave for the middle of July nearly centered along the 20N latitude line west of Africa. Will this development actually happen? Chances are, regardless of development, this time period will attract some attention.