Saturday, May 12, 2012

Atlantic Invest 92- May 12, 2012

Atlantic Invest 92 has formed in the Atlantic.
The system currently has a 40% chance of development per the National Hurricane Center, and its tight formation and cloud structures would not surprise me to see a tropical storm form in the next couple days.

Track forecasts for the system are pretty uninteresting, with the system being projected to swirl around the general region it is now.

Intensity forecasts do indicate that there is potential for a tropical storm to form, but if that does happen it should be more low-end tropical storm status.

More to come.

Atlantic Tropics May Become Active Yet

MSLP at hour 336 off the 12z FIM

10m winds (knots) at hour 336 off the 12z FIM
The 12z FIM has returned the potential for a tropical system after it had disproved the system for this morning's 0z run. While this trend has returned, the timeframe continues to be wobbly, with the original timeframe being on the 22nd for a possible Florida brush. As seen above, the latest FIM has this brush on the 25th.

For this system, it looks like the formation point would be to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, if the storm even came to light. Based on model trends, the system would move north through Cuba, where some of its strength would be lost. Some flooding would be possible on Cuba, with 6 hour rain accumulations passing 2 inches. From Cuba, the system may pass just to the east of Florida, possibly putting down some good winds and rain. After this brush, the system has 2 options- passing out to sea or hugging the East Coast. I find it more likely for the system to pass out to sea, but time will tell.