Friday, February 11, 2011

Graphics Updated

Using a new software, the way the Weather Centre makes graphics has now improved greatly.
Using this software, the Spring Forecasts will be edited from now on.
The US Spring Forecast will NOT be edited.

The 'Big Thaw' Latest Image

December, January 2010-2011 Winter Full Assessment

This is to compare the Weather Centre's Winter Forecast to what actually happened. Below are January Temperature/Precipitation maps by the NCDC.
Let's start with the precipitation map. Although the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes say below normal, I am fairly sure that a very large majority of that precipitation was snow.
Judging that the entire Great Lakes (GL), Midwest (MW) and Ohio Valley (OV) is in this below normal segment, I believe my Winter Forecast did verify quite nicely. Further improving that forecast is the fact that the Southwest is below normal.
On to the Temperature Map. This is where the similarities end with the Winter Forecast. The Southeast and South Central US were below normal in the way of temperatures. However, much of the MW, GL, OV and New England (NE) were below normal in temperatures.
Below we're going to go on to the December Assessment.
Temperatures again were below normal in the Southeast which displeases me yet again. However, the South Central US began to warm up, which began to catch along with my forecast. The GL, MW, OV and NE regions were below normal for temperatures which went along with my Winter Forecast.
Onto the Precipitation for December. The West US and North Plains were above normal precipitation areas. I did predict the Northwest to be above normal in precipitation. The South Central US was below normal in precipitation. This continues to go along with the Forecast. The GL, OV and Southeast regions were below normal for precipitation. However, again in snow, these totals have actually been above normal in the way of snow.

January 2011 National Temperature Assessment

As we can see above, January 2011 was a cold month for much of the US. The entire East US can be considered below normal temperatures in January 2011.
In the Southwest, however, slightly warmer conditions prevailed over the region. In fact, the temperatures were warmer than the East was colder, going by the number scale.
Unfortunately, this directly defies my Winter Forecast. Forecasters aren't perfect, and I will continue to try and do my best in forecasting.

US Gets a break from the wild weather.

The US is finally getting a break from the winter storms raking the country.
On the long-range GFS, the next system that may impact the Midwest is not even in the next 16 days outlook.
However, the South US will be active. A potential system may impact the South Midwest.
However, in long-range models, storms can be there and gone in one model run.