Sunday, October 31, 2010

Hurricane Tomas Halloween Night Update

Tomas is now forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, then strike Haiti as either a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

October 31 2010 Snowcast

No snow is forecast to occur in the United States today.

Thanks for the support

Thanks to all the viewers who have provided support.
As long as you want weather form here, i will provide it.
Thanks!

Today's weather, Halloween 2010

Happy Halloween everyone! Today, no thunderstorms are forecast at all across the entire area! That's pretty awesome! However, areas up north will be experiencing a cooler Halloween as a cold front has swept through the area. Down south will be a nice and toasty halloween. However, the entire northern US will experience a chilly Halloween except the Northern Plains, where today will settle in the sixties.

UK, Ireland Sunday Forecast



For you Ireland and European folks.

Hurricane Tomas revised prediction

Hello everyone. Today is a big day for the Caribbean residents as Hurricane Tomas gains more strength. I predict Tomas will intensify to a maximum category 3 hurricane, with top winds of 135 mph.
Tomas will veer away from the US due to a jet stream. The category 3 hurricane will strike Haiti. Unfortunately Haiti seems to have a curse on it- Cholera, earthquakes, flooding, now a hurricane. It just doesn't stop.

After it strikes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Tomas will be thrown out to sea- or, it may veer up the East coast and Strike New England as a weak category 1. Those are my predictions.

SNOWCast Information

Today, Halloween, we switch over to SNOWcasts. I officially declare severe storms mostly over for the northern part of the country. My SNOWcasts will be much like a Special Weather Advisory, Watch, or Warning.
They will be classified as a Snow Advisory, Snow Watch, or Snow Warning.
They may be SNOWcast Advisory, etc. as well.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

New information Just published on Hurricane Tomas' page.

403th post

Missed the 400th. Anyways, to commemorate this special event, the winter forecast 3rd version will be released 2 WEEKS EARLIER than expected!!

Hurricane Tomas briefing 1

video

Hurricane Tomas

Hurricane Tomas will be impacting the Caribbean, with a sharp turn to the right then being thrown out to sea and dissipating.

Hurricane Tomas

Hurricane Tomas will be impacting the Caribbean, with a sharp turn to the right then being thrown out to sea and dissipating.

Data Images from NHC

You can see the development of Tomas

4pm Hurricane Tomas Bulletin

I project Hurricane Tomas will be thrown out to sea due to a jet stream. It will become a Category 3 and then weaken. Tomas should dissipate around the Mid-Atlantic region between North Africa and the US.

Another bulletin will be issued later today.

Hurricane Tomas projected path 1pm update

Tomas' satellite picture

Notice on Weather Forecasts

Any and All updates to the Winter Forecast will be made on the 2010-2011 USA Winter Forecast page. Click on the link to learn more.

Tomas information

Information on hurricane Tomas just updated. Click under Pages and go to Hurricane Tomas.

Hurricane Tomas 10am update

Image by NHC

Tropical Storm Tomas Updated Projected Path


This is the newest map available. To see full info on Tomas, you can go to the home page of this blog, under pages, click Tropical Storm Tomas.
Image by NHC

Friday, October 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas' Projected Path

Image by NHC. This is the 10pm CDT forecast for this storm.

Today's current water vapor imagery

We can see what looks like a jet stream pattern down south curling up north into New England. Not enough moisture is evident for any rain to form, especially in South Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Shary's projected path


Image by the NHC.

Tropical Storm Tomas' projected path


Image by the NHC.

HurricanEye URGENT MESSAGE

Hurricane TOMAS, in the Atlantic, is projected to become a MAJOR HURRICANE by the end of the next few days. It is forecast to be heading towards the GULF COAST STATES. MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW TO EVACUATE.

Special Weather Warning

A Special Weather Warning has been issued for the following area:
-All of West Central US from Tennessee, to Indiana, to Pennsylvania, to South Carolina

At 4:19pm, all of these areas were under either a FREEZE WARNING, FREEZE WATCH, FROST ADVISORY.

People in these areas are advised to bring in ALL SENSITIVE PLANTS.
Sensitive Plants WILL DIE outside tonight if left uncovered.

This will expire at 10:00am Saturday morning.

2011 Hurricane Season Long Range Outlook

Hello everyone! This is the Long Range 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook. As we can see the impacts above, including land. But today, we will focus solely on the Atlantic and Pacific.

Right now, we are in a moderate La Nina, and that La Nina is expected to get stronger.
So, we can see the active tropics in the middle area between Africa and South America, and more wet in the Area above the South America land into the Caribbean.
I am going to argue for the Atlantic that the entire area of the Gulf through the Caribbean lining the South American countries are typically active, however this season is startlingly below normal. I am not going to mark any major increase in hurricane activity.
The Atlantic should see a relatively weak hurricane season into early next year, then likely staying at that or either increasing or decreasing in intensity.

For the Pacific, we see a La Nina is associated with quieter tropics. This is of no surprise- there hasn't been a system in weeks that has had modest potential to become a hurricane. I predict it will remain quiet into the end of the hurricane season this year, with modest strengthening into next year. Fluctuations will happen, and times of rest will occur.

This will be the ONLY Long Range 2011 Hurricane season outlook. A new outlook may be issued early next year.

HurricanEye

The above image is from the National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic: Tropical Storm Shary has formed. It will be curling around, narrowly missing Bermuda, then be thrown out towards Europe where it will become post-tropical, also known as not a tropical system anymore.

Also in the Atlantic, a system riding the Northern area of the South American coast has a high likelihood to form over the next couple of days. It looks like it may be a big player, and, if all goes right for the storm, the Gulf could be in for its first hurricane/tropical system to make a hard landfall.

Pacific: None

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Special Weather Advisory (See below)

A Special Weather Advisory (SWA) has been issued for the following areas:
-West 2/3 Tennessee
-North Mississippi
-Some of North Arkansas
-Central Texas
-Central Oklahoma

At 8:09pm, these areas were under a FREEZE WATCH or FROST ADVISORY.

People in these areas should bring in extremely sensitive plants.

This will expireat 11:59pm, but may be extended at 4:20pm.

Special Weather Warning (See below)

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) has been issued for the following areas:
-Southern 2/3 of Illinois
-Southeast Iowa
-Southcentral Iowa
-Missouri
-East Kansas
-East Oklahoma
-Northwest Arkansas
-Most of Kentucky
-South 2/3 of Indiana
-West Central Ohio
-Southwest Ohio

At 8:04pm, the above areas were under a FREEZE WARNING.

People in these areas should bring in sensitive plants. This will be the first hard freeze.
Sensitive plants will die.

This warning will expire tomorrow at 11:59am, but may be extended at around 4:00 when the next warnings, watches and advisories are issued.

2009 tornado reports

Update to today's SWW and *SWW*

This is an update to today's earlier Special Weather Watch and Special Weather Warning in the Southeast.

All storms have either dissipated or weakened.
This watch is now cancelled.
This warning is now cancelled.

2010-2011 Europe Winter Forecast

(Updated November 2nd, 2010)
Hello everyone. This is the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast for Europe. This graphic by Accuweather.

So, as we can see, much of Europe will get a well deserved break. Some of the areas up north were blasted last year over and over again. This year, the blasting stops...for you guys. For the Southern Europeans, the Worst of the winter will flush into the area, with Bitter cold and Heavy snow. yes, Snowday material. I predict potentially record breaking snowfalls in the center and north of the 'worst of winter' area.

So, what does Northern Europe get this year? I predict, based on this graphic, that North Europe will get a milder winter with not as much snow. I do anticipate some heavy snowstorms, but not as many as last year. Maybe even a few temperature swings. But nothing in the way of any superstorms. Again, the probability of a few snowstorms is high. But several like last year is looking more and more bleak.

Out in Western Europe is the colder areas. Not the worst cold, but still cold. Not anticipating the worst snow, but maybe a bit above average or just on average. I predict maybe a couple days where the records for temperature could be broken, emphasize COULD.

In conclusion, South Europe will get cold. Southeast Europe will get the harsh hand of winter, while the West part gets chilly. Up North, the entire area gets a break from the terrible winter from last year. Not as cold, and not as snowy.

Thanks for viewing the 2010-2011 Europe Winter Forecast. This will be the ONLY Europe forecast unless any major changes are made. Below is MY summary for this winter.


2010-2011 Canada Winter Forecast

(Updated November 2nd, 2010)

Hello all! Today we will be reviewing the Canadian winter this year. Thanks to Accuweather for providing information.

Let's focus in on the Southern portion of Canada. The populated regions, such as Toronto, are in store for above average snow. Other areas to the west will also recieve aboveaverage snow. In some areas, the above average will turn to heaviest snow range. I got a graphic from Accuweather.com for their look on the forecast.

Accuweather is a reliable resource. However, I'm going to argue that the area lining the New York-Ohio area will also be in the Much Above range. As you can see, in the middle, there will be near normal conditions. Slightly below? Slightly above? Nope, just normal. Even the Northern US Plains is on track for a normal winter.
Also in the southern Canada regions we see some Below Normal snowfall. That is not something I'm going to argue with, particularly due to the fact there is nothing to argueabout against this.
In US Alaska, Much below normal snowfall. Sorry kids, notmany snowdays this year, if any.

Focusing now to Northern Canada, we'll start off with the... well, there's only one thing to say about it. The entire Northern Canada area will either be normal, below normal, or much below normal. The below normal areas reside off the East coast of Canada, as well as up north by Denmark. Or Greenland. Whichever you prefer. Below is MY snowfall map.

Temperatures
---------------


Let's start off with the most surprising fact: The same area in the Much Above snowfall is in the Above Normal temperatures! Why?? Because Canada is colder than the US. Don't worry, Northern US kids, my forecast will stay the same despite this. I am expecting temperature swings in Canada due to the Above Normal snowfall.
Turning to the East Coast, we see bits and pieces of above normal temperatures. No arguments there.
Up by Alaska, Much Below normal temperatures. And, seeing as how cold it can get, well, let's just say that frostbite'll be as common as the common cold. The areas surrounding Alaska bathed in Below Normal temperatures, likely caused by polar winds shifting to allow absolutely frigid air to sweep through.

Thanks for viewing the 2010-2011 Canada Winter Forecast. This will be the ONLY forecast for Canada unless there are major changes.


Storm Prediction Center yesterday's reports.

Special Weather Watch and Special Weather Warning

A Special Weather Watch and a Special Weather Warning have been issued for the following areas:

Special weather watch:
-The carolinas
-South Georgia
-Florida

Special Weather Watch statement:
At 7:08am, the above areas were not in any risk; however, strong storms were in that outlined area. For that reason, this watch will stay up until 3:00pm CDT.

People in those areas should prepare for wind, rain, lightning.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Special Weather Warning:
-Very Extreme south Louisiana
-Very Extreme South Mississippi
-Very Extreme West Florida Panhandle.

At 7:11am, these strong and possibly severe storms were moving off coast.

This special weather warning and special weather watch for this area will be cancelled at 7:30am.

However, the other Special Weather Watch remains in effect.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Special Weather Warning (See below)

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) has been issued for the following areas:
-South Mississippi
-Central Alabama
-North Georgia
-Western 2/3 of South Carolina
-North Carolina
-East Virginia


At 5:44pm, radar indicated a broken squall line moving NNE.

Tornadoes have been produced with this cold front.

People in this area should prepare for small hail, winds, cloud to ground lightning, and isolated funnel clouds. Isolated Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

This warning will expire at 11:59pm, but is likely to end around 10:00pm.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast 2nd version



Hello everyone! This is the second version of the official winter forecast made by the Weather Centre.

Credits: NOAA, NWS
ACCUWEATHER

All sloppy-looking graphics made by me.

So, let's begin...well, it's hard to begin anywhe
re! There's so much to say!
So I guess we'll start off with the most important.

NORTHERN HALF OF U.S.
Okay, let's start off with our Northerners of the U.S. Obviously, last year, our Northern
Midwest folks had less than average snow
and a bit of warmth. Of course, the memorable in the New England area. So, let's start with the New England area.

NEW ENGLAND
For our Snowicane victims, do not fear this winter. Your snow will not be nearly as bad as last year. I know, big relief. How ever, we will deal with bitter cold in the northern half of New England. Average or slightly above average snow will occur in the majority of New England. In the southernmost area of New England, it is an increased risk for ice storms. We will call this area the 'ICY ZONE'.


In the Icy Zone, people will experience large temperature swings. Rain, snow, and sleet with freezing rain will accompany storms with these temperature swings. Snow will accompany the area shaded in blue. In that area, labeled the Cold/Average Snow zone, people will experience bitter cold. In addition, average snow will happen, possibly slightly above average.

GREAT LAKES

In the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will not go away. It is unknow
n what wil
l happen in many of the lakes. However, Lake Michigan, having warmer than normal waters at this time, will produce more lake effect snow.
The below graphic will mention the areas and list the effects this winter.


Cities such as Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago will be getting the heaviest snow.
The pink area is the Icy Zone.
The dark blue area, of course, is the heaviest snow. By this, NOAA and Accuweather have identified it as unsure, but Accuweather is confident that the area will get a lot of snow.
(Joe Bastardi, Chief Long-Range Forecaster, Accuweather: "...Heck of a lot of snow this winter.")
The NOAA, on the other hand, will only identify the Chicago and Detroit areas as 'Above Average', with little or no mention of Minneapolis. In addition, the Great Lakes and anyone else in the 'Heaviest Snow' area will be under an increased ice risk. So it's almost like a double-whammy for the folks up north.

NORTHWEST

The Northwest is in for quite a wild winter. This winter will feature wet, soggy conditions in cities such as Spokane, Washington and Seattle, Washington. Thunderstorms and rain, not snow, will occur in those areas. Sorry, kids. Not much for snowdays.
However, if you live in the Mountains, snow will occur there. Thus above average snow should occur in the mountains. In the graphic below, it explains.


Snow will occur in the mountains, but rainy conditions in all areas.

SOUTHERN HALF U.S.

Not much winter will come to the South. Because of that, a graphic will not be displayed.
Dry conditions will happen across the south with severedroughts expected.
Warm temperatures will happen as well.


SUMMARY:


Heaviest snow across the Great Lakes into New England. Icy Zone through the Nation's Midsection. Dry and warm down in the South. Wet and soggy out Northwest, with snowy mountains. Temperature swings in the Icy Zone and Heaviest Snow; more in the Icy Zone. Possible tornadic situation in the Southeast this winter. (If storms like that are propelled upward, it spells snow, rain, and ice.). Extra Lake effect snow from Lake Michigan. Bitterly cold in Alaska.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION
(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,
or CPC. You guys rock!)

For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let's begin.

The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on
e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA's forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, and definitely warmer down south.
However, Accuweather gets right into that and says 'colder and snowier' for the n
orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter's forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.


I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn't it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.

PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION

Looking over the CPC's forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.

ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION

No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.

LA NINA

La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter's snow and weather. That is all.



Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '2nd version; whatever-number update'.

Thanks for viewing


The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports as of yesterday.

Special Weather Watch (See statement below)

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) has been issued for the following areas:
-Central Alabama
-North Georgia
-Western 2/3 of South Carolina
-North Carolina
-East half of Virginia

At 7:15am, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked this area as a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather today.

Residents should prepare for cloud to ground lightning, small hail, fairly strong winds, possibly an isolated funnel cloud. Tornadoes are unlikely.

This watch will expire at 11:59pm tonight.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Image of Tornadoes today



(Courtesy of the San Diego National Weather Service)

Update to the Special Weather Watch concerning high winds

The following states are no longer under the SWW issued for a Wind Advisory:
-All of the South, except Arkansas

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WARNING (does not replace earlier one)

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
-EAST OHIO
-WEST WEST VIRGINIA
-EAST KENTUCKY
-EAST TENNESSEE
-NORTH ALABAMA

AT 4:11PM, THESE AREAS WERE UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER

TORNADOES, HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

MAKE MOVES NOW TO PREPARE FOR THESE STORMS.

THIS WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11:59PM CDT.

Special Weather Watch (See statement below)

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) Has been issued for the following areas:
-Mississippi
-Northern 2/3 of Alabama
-North Georgia
-Extreme North South Carolina
-West half of North Carolina
-Virginia
-East half of West Virginia
-Pennsylvania
-New York
-North half of Michigan
-East Ohio

At 4:06pm, these areas were under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC.)

People should make moves now to prepare for hail, damaging winds, cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rain all possibilities.

This watch will expire at 11:59pm CDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WARNING

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
-CENTRAL ALABAMA
-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
-EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA
-EXTREME WEST NORTH CAROLINA
-EASTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE
-EAST KENTUCKY
-WEST VIRGINIA (the actual state)
-WEST PENNSYLVANIA
-EAST OHIO

At 3:56pm, TORNADO WATCHES were in effect across these areas.

People in these areas are to prepare to take shelter NOW.

Move outdoor objects indoors.
Tornadoes have occurred with this cold front.

This warning will expire at 11:59pm.

Special Weather Warning (Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan, Indiana)

Note: For Indiana residents, this does NOT replace the SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EMERGENCY issued earlier today.

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) is in effect for the following areas
-Tennessee
-Kentucky
-Indiana
-Michigan

At 7:25am, a dangerous squall line was moving east in association with a cold front associated with a very intense low pressure system.

People in these areas are to prepare for severe storms now.

This warning will expire at 12:00pm.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EMERGENCY

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EMERGENCY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
-INDIANA
-OHIO

AT 6:17AM, THESE AREAS WERE IN A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WITH VERY SEVERE STORMS.

PEOPLE ARE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS ASAP FOR LARGE, VIOLENT TORNADOES, EXTREMELY HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LARGE HAIL, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG. DO NOT TAKE ANY CHANCES WITH THIS STORM.

TAKE SHELTER WHEN SIRENS SOUND.

THIS EMERGENCY WEATHER BULLETIN WILL EXPIRE AT 11:59PM CDT.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Special Weather Watch/Warning, Watch

A Special Weather Watch/Warning has been issued for the following areas:
-Indiana
-North half of Kentucky
-Ohio
-South Michigan

At 5:02pm, A MODERATE RISK for severe thunderstorms had been outlooked in the above areas by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
This Moderate Risk will happen tomorrow as a cold front passes through.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS ARE TO PREPARE FOR TORNADOES, VERY DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL, VERY DAMAGING WINDS, AND DOWNPOURS.

The farther east you are in this area, the faster the cold front will arrive at your area.

---------------------

In addition, A Special Weather Watch (SWW) Has been issued for the following areas surround ing the moderate risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

-East half of Illinois
-East half of Wisconsin
-North half of Michigan
-Extreme Southeast Missouri
-East Arkansas
-Northeast Louisiana
-Northern 2/3 of Mississippi
-Northern half of Alabama
-North Georgia
-Extreme West North Carolina
-Extreme West Virginia
-West Virginia (the actual state)
-West Pennsylvania
-Extreme west New York

All of the above areas are outlooked in a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

These storms will take place tomorrow.
People in those areas should prepare for winds, possibly cloud to ground lightning, rain, and small hail.

This watch will expire at 12:05am Wednesday morning CDT.

The Watch/Warning will expire at 12:10am Wednesday morning CDT.

A Significant Weather Bulletin may be needed tomorrow for the people in the Watch/Warning area.

Special Weather Watch (Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas)

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) Has been issued for the following areas:
-Illinois
-Southern Wisconsin
-Eastern Iowa
-East half of Missouri
-Northeast Arkansas

At 4:59pm, a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather was in effect for today in the above areas.

Strong low pressure will bring cold front in. Jet stream will provide instability. Showers and storms will occur as cold front passes through.

People in these areas should prepare for small hail, winds, and cloud to ground lightning possibly.

This watch will expire at 11:59pm today.

Special Weather Advisory (see below statement for areas)

A Special Weather Advisory (SWA) Has been issued for the following areas:
-North Texas
-Central Louisiana
-North Louisiana
-New Mexico
-Oklahoma
-Mississippi
-North Alabama
-West Tennessee
-Central Tennessee
-Kentucky
-Ohio
-Indiana
-Southwest Missouri
-Southeast Missouri
-North Missouri
-Kansas
-Northeast Arizona
-Nebraska
-South Iowa
-North Wisconsin

At 4:55pm, a Wind Advisory was in effect.

Strengthening Low Pressure with extremely low pressure of 28.3 inches will go over Minnesota into Wisconsin Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds from this system will impact all the above areas.

Make moves to secure outdoor objects soon.

Small branches may fall.

This advisory will expire at 3:00am Thursday morning.

Special Weather Watch (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, South and North Dakota, Nebraska)

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) has been issued for the following areas:
-North Illinois
-North Indiana
-North Ohio
-Michigan
-Lower 2/3 of Wisconsin
-Lower half of Minnesota
-Iowa
-North Dakota
-South Dakota
-Extreme North Central Nebraska

At 4:48pm, a High Wind Warning was in effect for these areas.

Between Tuesday and Thursday morning, high winds will impact these areas. Gusts will be up to 75mph in the Minnesota-Wisconsin area, and 55mph in the other areas.

Secure outdoor objects NOW. Objects may become airborne.
Tree branches may be downed and power lines may fall.

Do not touch a downed power line.
Do not move into a dangerous area of debris.

This watch will expire at 3:00am Thursday morning.

Special Weather Warning (The Carolinas and Georgia)

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) Has been issued for the following areas:
-Eastern North Carolina
-Eastern South Carolina
-Georgia

At 4:42pm, radar indicated strong to severe storms in the eastern Carolinas, with dangerous thunderstorms exceeding severe levels in Georgia, moving east.

Georgia residents....
This is a very dangerous cluster of storms. Watches are in effect. Tornadoes may occur, and high damaging winds and hail are likely. Very dangerous cloud to ground lightning is possible. South Georgia residents are advised to immediately seek cover and shelter.

Carolina residents...
People in Eastern portions of the Carolinas are advised to make preparations, unless thundering, for intense thunderstorms. Tornadoes, wind, hail, downpours are possible.

This warning will continue on for the entirety of the day.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS.

SEVERE TO DANGEROUSLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPLODING ON RADAR IN NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING INTO ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS MUST BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER. TURN ON A TV OR RADIO AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY.

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11:59PM.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Alaska


Hello all. Here, we will discuss our final piece: Alaska.

Alaska will contain bitterly cold temperatures. That's saying something, considering Alaska get's frigid already. Dangerous cold may be in Alaska every day.


Alaska should have normal precipitation, maybe a little more snow.
The above image is from Accuweather.

That's all for focusing in on the pieces.
Thanks for viewing, and keep tuned into the Weather Centre.

Special Weather Watch (Illinois, Indiana)

A Special Weather Watch has been issued for the following areas:
-Northern Illinois
-Northern Indiana

At 7:46pm, a line of mesocyclonic storms and possibly hail producing storms were on radar in Northern Illinois moving Northeast.

In North Indiana, a TORNADO WARNING was put into effect. People in North Central Indiana should keep an eye to the sky and be prepared to seek shelter.

This watch will expire at 9:20pm CDT.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: South US

Good evening everyone! Hope you're having a splendid night. This is our last Lower 48 states piece, where we will focus in on the South.

Not much of any snow will come to the South this winter. To many, it will almost seem like an extended spring. Rain will still be there.

Temperatures will be warm throughout the entire Southern Half.

A note to be aware of: The area from Texas eastward may experience an active tornado season. However, only one forecast has shown this.

That's just about it.
Next, our piece will be the Alaskans.
Good evening to all.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Soggy and Wet Pacific Northwest.

Good evening everyone. Tonight, we'll hone in on our wet friends in the Pacific Northwest. This piece will be short and sweet.

Everyone in the Pacific Northwest NOT living in mountains will recieve a milder, certainly wetter winter. Storms in abundance, but not much for snow. Flooding could certainly be an issue.

For people living in the mountains, you've got LOADS of snow to come. All that rain down by the lower folks? That's gonna be a nice snow. Intense winter storms will be plentiful in the Rocky Mountains in the Pacific Northwest this winter.

That's about all there is to the Pacific Northwest winter.
Soggy, wet down low.
Very snowy up in the moutains.

Our last piece will be the South, posted next.
Have a good evening.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Heaviest Snow zone

Hello everyone. Here, we'll focus in on the much-anticipated Heaviest Snow zone. If it lives up to its name, those shovels will be pretty beaten up by the end.

States such as North Illinois, all of Wisconsin, Minnesota, into the Eastern Dakotas and Northeast Nebraska. The range includes Michigan into New York, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire. All of these states are within the range that should contain the country's worst snow.

Temperature wise, the temps should be normal. However, states such as Illinois, Indiana and Ohio may recieve slightly above average temperatures this winter. Not too much of an obstacle for snow.

States in the Heaviest Snow zone, whether near the border or not, will be able to recieve heavy snow. However, states near the border may recieve a little less and more wet snow. The states a good distance away from the border should have a little more snow, and a little less wet due to decreased amount of temperature swings and proximity to the cold Canadian air reserves.

While these predictions are indeed far off, Accuweather (a main source of winter information), will release more editions of the winter forecasts, as well as another site that will not be named.

Thanks for viewing. The next zone we'll investigate will be our Pacific Northwest.
Tune in for that one!

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Icy Zone

Hello everyone! This time, we'll be focusing in on the 'Icy Zone' mentioned in the first official post.

Now, this is a crucial zone in this winter. It is possibly the most dangerous section of this winter.
The Icy Zone is aptly named- It will contain at least a few ice storms. Whenever there's ice storms, there's school closings. So kids in Lower New England through the nation's midsection across most of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, South Dakota and Missouri can expect a snowday or two.

The Icy Zone will have extremely intense temperature swings. This is due to the warm and cold air masses colliding, hence the Icy Zone name. To many kids, it would seem like the Icy Zone is the best place to be for snowdays. You are pretty much incorrect. If you're well inside the Heaviest Snow zone, you can expect more snowdays than the Icy Zone. If you're close to the border of the Icy Zone and still inside the Heaviest Snow, you can expect abundant snow and licks of warm and cold at times.

Travelers beware- The Icy Zone will be an absolute nightmare, when -Not IF; WHEN- ice storms arrive. Thus, schools will close. Going back to the weather, temperatures in the 60s will happen, as well as temperatures in the 20s at times.

Thank you for viewing. Our Next post will be about the Heaviest Snow zone. Be sure to tune in for that.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast by Accuweather and NOAA

Accuweather and NOAA have released their winter forecast, which have similarities:

-Warm and dry down south
-Slightly warmer in the Midwest.
-More Precipitation across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northern New England.
-Stormy out Northwest.

However, the Farmer's Almanac is predicting nearly the opposite.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER NOTICE

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER NOTICE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ARKANSAS.

AT 4:46PM, VERY SEVERE STORMS WERE BLOWING UP IN ARKANSAS TRAINIGN AND MOVING NORTHEAST.

THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, VERY DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THIS NOTICE WILL REMAIN UNTIL OTHERWISE NOTED.

Special Weather Advisory (Kentucky and Tennessee)

A Special Weather Advisory (SWA) has been issued for the follwoing areas:
-West Kentucky
-West Tennessee

At 4:38pm, a line of weaking storms and rain are moving Northeast.

People in these areas are advised to keep an eye to the skies.

Threats include winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning.

This advisory will expire at 6:00pm.

Special Weather Warning (Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi)

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) has been issued for the following areas:
-Northwest Mississippi
-East Texas
-North Louisiana

At 4:34pm, strong to severe storm cells were training and moving slowly North Northeast. Tornado watches and a severe thunderstorm watch have been issued for these storms.

People in these areas are advised to seek shelter and keep an eye to the sky.

Threats include High and damaging winds, hail, cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain, and tornadoes.

Tree branches may fall.

This warning will expire at 7:00pm CDT.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast 1st version: 2nd update

Edits:

-Will extend Heaviest snow area until border or Iowa and Nebraska, South Dakota.
-Heavy mountain snow chances increase in Pacific Northwest.

Special Weather Warning (Pacific Northwest USA)

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) has been issued for the following states:
-Washington
-Oregon
-North California
-South Idaho
-North Utah

At 12:40pm, showers and storms were training- a prime environment for flash flooding.

People are advised to prepare to seek shelter should a Flash Flood Warning be issued, especially in North California.

In Washington and Oregon...waves of showers and storms are making their way onshore from a low pressure system. Prime environment for flash flooding...especially near coast.

This Warning will expire at 3:00pm CDT.

Special Weather Advisory (Northern California)

A Special Weather Advisory (SWA) has been issued for Northern California.

At 11:40am, radar indicated training showers and storms in the Northern California area.

People in this area should prepare for flash flooding.

*Note: A Special Weather Warning will be issued if the rain continues past 12:30pm CDT.

Special Weather Watch (Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Indiana, Oklahoma

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) Has been issued for the following areas:
-East Central Texas
-North Louisiana
-Eastern Louisiana
-Mississippi
-Alabama
-Western Tennessee
-Western Kentucky
-West Central Indiana
-South Central Indiana
-Central Illinois
-Southern Illinois
-Southeastern Missouri
- Central Arkansas
-Southern Arkansas
-East Arkansas
-Southwest Arkansas

At 11:35am CDT, storms were beginning to form in the following areas:
-Eastern Arkansas
-Western Tennessee

These storms are moving North Northeast and developing in a squall line-like formation. However, they are not that strong yet.

The areas mentioned in this Special Weather Watch are under a slight risk of severe storms- thus, the watch was put into effect.

People in these areas should keep an eye on the sky and bring outdoor objects inside.

Potential threats include damaging winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning as well as heavy rain.

This watch will expire at approximately 12:00am Monday, October 25th 2010.

Special Weather Watch (Oregon, Washington)

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) has been issued for the following:
-Northwest Oregon
-All of Washington State

At 8:53am, moderate to heavy rain was strengthening over Northwest Oregon. There were storms and rain in various parts of Washington State.

Anyone within this watch is advised to bring in outdoor objects.

These storms may produce cloud to ground lightning.

The watch will expire at 9:15am for Northwest Oregon.
The watch will expire at 11:59am for Washington State.
A further watch may be issued for Central Oregon unless the storms weaken.


Saturday, October 23, 2010

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: La Nina Evidence: Seasonal




2010-2011 Winter Forecast: La Nina Evidence Monthly




2010-2011 Winter Forecast 1st version; 1st update

Edit to Nation's Midwest:

-Will include threat for extremely intense temperature swings in the Icy Zone mentioned in the forecast.


Notice

There will now be two authors within the Weather Centre.

Special Weather Warning (Northeast texas)

A Special Weather Warning (SWW) has been issued for Northeast texas.

At 8:54pm, strong to severe storms were moving North Northeast into Arkansas. There are currently Tornado Watches issued for these storms.

Anyone in these storms are advised to seek shelter if a tornado develops.

This warning will expire at 10:00pm.

Special Weather Watch (West Arkansas)

A Special Weather Watch (SWW) has been issued for West Arkansas.

At 8;52pm, moderate rain and storms were moving North Northeast.

These storms have a history of tornadic watches.

This watch will expire at 10:00pm.

Special Weather Watch (Iowa)

A Special Weather Watch has been issued for Iowa

At 8:47, strong storms were in Northwest Iowa and the border of Iowa and Illinois.

These storms will produce lightning and wind and rain.

The watch will expire at 10:30pm.

Notice to viewers

For now, I will try to re-introduce Special Weather Advisories, Watches, and/or Warnings for the country.

Special Weather Watch (Northern Illinois)

A Special Weather Watch has been issued for North Illinois.

At 8:25pm CDT, thunderstorm cells were 'raking' the area, moving northeast. They are popup storms with dangerous intentions.

Potential hazards include cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain, and wind.

This watch will expire at 11:59pm CDT tonight.

2010- 2011 Winter Forecast: 1st edition






Hello everyone! This is the first version of the official winter forecast made by the Weather Centre.

Credits: NOAA, NWS
ACCUWEATHER

All graphics made by me.

So, let's begin...well, it's hard to begin anywhere! There's so much to say!
So I guess we'll start off with the most important.

NORTHERN HALF OF U.S.
Okay, let's start off with our Northerners of the U.S. Obviously, last year, our Northern Midwest folks had less than average snow and a bit of warmth. Of course, the memorable in the New England area. So, let's start with the New England area.

NEW ENGLAND
For our Snowicane victims, do not fear this winter. Your snow will not be nearly as bad as last year. I know, big relief.How ever, we will deal with bitter cold in the northern half of New England. Average or slightly above average snow will occur in the majority of New England. In the southernmost area of New England, it is an increased risk for ice storms. We will call this area the 'ICY ZONE'.


In the Icy Zone, people will experience large temperature swings. Rain, snow, and sleet with freezing rain will accompany storms with these temperature swings. Snow will accompany the area shaded in blue. In that area, labeled the Cold/Average Snow zone, people will experience bitter cold. In addition, average snow will happen, possibly slightly above average.

GREAT LAKES

In the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will not go away. It is unknown what will happen in many of the lakes. However, Lake Michigan, having warmer than normal waters at this time, will produce more lake effect snow.
The below graphic will mention the areas and list the effects this winter.


Cities such as Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago will be getting the heaviest snow.
The pink area is the Icy Zone.
The dark blue area, of course, is the heaviest snow. By this, NOAA and Accuweather have identified it as unsure, but Accuweather is confident that the area will get a lot of snow.
(Joe Bastardi, Chief Long-Range Forecaster, Accuweather: "...Heck of a lot of snow this winter.")
The NOAA, on the other hand, will only identify the Chicago and Detroit areas as 'Above Average', with little or no mention of Minneapolis.

NORTHWEST

The Northwest is in for quite a wild winter. This winter will feature wet, soggy conditions in cities such as Spokane, Washington and Seattle, Washington. Thunderstorms and rain, not snow, will occur in those areas. Sorry, kids. Not much for snowdays.
However, if you live in the Mountains, snow will occur there. Thus above average snow should occur in the mountains. In the graphic below, it explains.


Snow will occur in the mountains, but rainy conditions in all areas.

SOUTHERN HALF U.S.

Not much winter will come to the South. Because of that, a graphic will not be displayed.
Dry conditions will happen across the south with severedroughts expected.
Warm temperatures will happen as well.


SUMMARY:


Heaviest snow across the Great Lakes into New England. Icy Zone through the Nation's Midsection. Dry and warm down in the South. Wet and soggy out Northwest, with snowy mountains. Temperature swings in the Icy Zone and Heaviest Snow; more in the Icy Zone. Possible tornadic situation in the Southeast this winter. (If storms like that are propelled upward, it spells snow, rain, and ice.). Extra Lake effect snow from Lake Michigan. Bitterly cold in Alaska.

Thanks for viewing my first edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '1st version; whatever-number update'.
Right after this, images from Accuweather and NOAA will be posted.

Thanks again for viewing!