Tuesday, January 4, 2011

La Nina Update and Forecast.

The images are sea temperatures (cooler mean stronger La Nina), and the graphs are various forecasts from months to seasons.

Midwest Storm Update #2

GFS continues with a northerly track.
ECMWF a bit weaker, a tad southerly.
NOGAPS has a low shoot up from Mexico, giving Upper Midwest heavy snow.
DGEX similar to morning track, northerly as GFS.
CMC similar to GFS, DGEX, but most northerly in that type of track.

Since NOGAPS is only model that has low shoot up into Plains, Midwest, will eliminate that for choice.
GFS, DGEX have been consistent in last few runs.
Will not make decision on CMC.
ECMWF has only southerly track, but has been somewhat consistent.
Will prefer GFS track for now, with a hint of DGEX.

Midwest Storm Potential Update #1

The most recent run of the ECMWF model has the shortwave still in place. However, it pulls the low pressure out of the Gulf and farther north.
This may affect the Midwest a great deal more.

The GFS is done with the shortwave, but now pulls the Gulf low up so much that it greatly impacts the Great Lakes with possibly heavy snow.

A lesser-known model, the DGEX, keeps the heaviest snows still in the Great Lakes, like the GFS, but then pushes the snow a bit farther north after its initial onset.

The most recent NOGAPS model indicates the low coming out from the Gulf itself, then moving across the Southeast region to an extent that impacts the south region of the Midwest.

Finally, the CMC Model has the low take a similar GFS, DGEX track, having the low affect the Midwest greatly, but pushing up the rain/snow line just a bit.

ATTM, preferred track will be ECMWF/NOGAPS track mix. This would have the initial snows impact the Great Lakes but then move on.

Bus Stop Forecast

As you head out to the bus this morning, expect lake-effect snow through the Northeast Great Lakes back through the West Great Lakes. Rain will be occurring down by Houston Texas, with showers possible in the Southeast corner of the US.