Sunday, July 10, 2011
Two of these are considered more classic wind patterns, and the other one is not as well known.
The red and green couplet indicate strong opposing winds, and ideal situation for tornadoes.
The area i am most worried about it the northernmost tornado warning, where the lightest green and deepest red intersect into a couplet- a trademark of tornadoes.
The middle tornado warning is a fairly large section of intense green which means winds going towards the radar site. In that middle warning, we are watching for the slightest hint of red, which would indicate a rapidly developing couplet- red and green together in a tight area.
-Southeast North Dakota
-Northeast South Dakota
These storms are intensifying, so people in the moderate risk should take this threat seriously.
There is a tornado warning in effect, and you can read it on the right sidebar of the above image.
The tornado warning issued is definitely worth it, as the image above displays.
There is a very defined hook on radar in addition to these incredibly strong winds.
We have identified an area of potential weak rotation southwest of Bismarck.
The reason I say weak is because one direction's winds are above 30 knots, while the other direction doesn't pass 20 knots, therefore the winds are not terrifically conductive for a tornado.
However, with areas of stronger directional winds to the north of the lower wind speed, there remains potential for both parties to adjust into a couplet of strong rotation.
We will continue to monitor this situation.
-Much of Nebraska
-Much of Minnesota
-East South Dakota
-Southeast North Dakota
SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system with attached warm front and trough will move east and initiate showers and thunderstorms in the Dakotas. That warm front will then turn into a warm front in Wisconsin, where that will also initiate storms.
Conditions will be favorable for supercells in the same areas as yesterday as a moderate mid level flow off the higher elevations out west will provide forcing into a very moist environment to initiate thunderstorms.
Following excerpts from the SPC
...CNTRL HI PLNS INTO NEB THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY SUN... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SETUP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER THE RCKYS OF CO AND SRN WY. THIS REGION WILL AGAIN LIE BENEATH BRANCH OF MODERATE /30+ KT/ WSWLY MID LVL FLOW IMMEDIATELY TOPPING S CNTRL U.S. UPR RIDGE. SETUP SHOULD FOSTER ENE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO DEEPLY MIXED/FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ AND PRESENCE OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER THAT COULD EXTEND THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS FAR E AS CNTRL/ERN NEB BY EARLY SUN.
AMPLE MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S F/ BENEATH DEEP EML WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 4000 J PER KG/. COUPLED WITH 40+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR...SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. WHILE DEEP WIND PROFILES LARGELY WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/STNRY FRONT REMNANTS FROM CNTRL SD/S CNTRL ND ESE INTO WRN MN AND PERHAPS NE NEB/NRN IA. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN...WI/IA...AND POSSIBLY NRN IL THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SUN IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS.
today's wind outlook