Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Model run NAM

The NAM says a strong storm will deepen down south. It will slide up north just shy of New England. It looks like it will stay more by the Ohio area, maybe even touching Chicago.
The NAM continues to say a storm will slide in to the Pacifc Northwest with quite a bit of precip.
A weak low pressure system will go through Central Illinois, creating precip in that area.
That low in the Pacifc Northwest appears to be seperating. One will continue horizontally on the border of Canada and the US. The other one will weaken and stay in the Northwest.

Midwest Perfect Winter Storm Set-up

(This is informational and is not forecast)

A low pressure dives through the Pacifc Northwest. It is deepening, thus producing more and more precip. A positive PNA and negative AO are in effect.

The storm enters below in the Central Illinois area.
Snow as high as over 16 inches came over the area.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast Update (USA)

Hello everyone. This is a brief update to the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast for the USA.

All indications are that the AO index will dive negative. This spells a snowy time for the Great Lakes area and cold, smack on. However, we are focusing on a long range forecast.

A certain website is indicating that the Great Lakes area will not receive heavy snow. I highly doubt that. They indicate less Ohio Valley precip. Ohio Valley WILL get more precip. The Great Lakes WILL get more precip. However, this certain site is indicating that the ice storm risk is significantly increased.

I will consider the potential for temperature swings and jet stream shifts that will probably bring an ice storm or two.

A positive PNA and negative AO indexes will spell a very intense winter. So how is this year's PNA shaping up?

This year's PNA for the next 14 days looks like negative turning positive.
The next 14 day AO certainly will turn negative.
This likely means a possibly moderately snowy period over the next 2 weeks.

Long range? Hard to tell, but with many indications showing not just the Ohio valley in a snow threat this la nina year, I think the AO will be negative.
The PNA, when positive, means a stormy and cold time in the Midwest.

Notice to viewers

The Snow Centre will be re-formed as a page. Due to its complexity, it will not be published until likely this weekend or so.