Sunday, February 13, 2011

Active Storm Patten Preparing to Set Up for the end of February

After the Big Thaw, a very active storm pattern will commence across the US. There will be a series of Gulf-fed storms that trek anywhere from Chicago to North Arkansas.
A good average at this time appears to be south IL to north Arkansas.
Below is The Weather Centre's thoughts on this storm pattern.

2011 Spring-Summer Tornado Forecast

This is the revised 2011 Spring-Summer Tornado Forecast.
Using a long-range model, the CFS, this forecast is being perfected consistently.
La Nina is expected to persist throughout this tornado season, and that will play quite a factor throughout the summer and spring.
Below is The Weather Centre's overall outlook for this tornado forecast.
There is a very nice set up of a very dry air mass over the West US. There is also an open Gulf flowing freely into the Central and East US.
These two factors alone are more than sufficient for tornado and severe thunderstorm formation.
Below is the latest humidity average for the US in the month of July, then August using the CFS.
July has the Gulf free and open while the West is extremely dry. August is very similar, but humidity values are higher. Below is The Weather Centre's Percentage chances for tornadoes.
In summary, the Central Plains and Midwest are under a preliminary threat for tornadoes this spring, summer and fall.

24 Hour Snow Melt- The Big Thaw

Compare the color on the map to the bar. If the color corresponds with the number 2, 2 inches of snow has melted in the last 24 hours. If the color goes with 4, then 4 inches has melted in 24 hours, and so forth.
(I believe that is correct...)

Fun Fact on the Big Thaw

From Thursday, February 10 to Sunday, February 13, snow cover across the US has dropped 22.5%.
For maps and animations of this, see this link of NOHRSC.
Below is a current Snow Depth Map.

500mb Levels- The Big Thaw

In this image from the ESRL, notice the dip in levels out in the Northwest, where Canadian air will go, ousted from the Plains. Also notice the spike in levels in the East US where the warmer air is prevalent.

ESRL Anomalies- The Big Thaw

This image is from the ESRL. Where the red is is where the hottest temperatures will be. Notice how it is flooding into the US.
While the cold air is dipping into the Northwest.

Changes to the WCM

The WCM page is being shut down at this time.
However, it is being renamed and will function as an in-house specialized model.
Its basic functions will remain the same.