Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Early Memorial Day Forecast Shows Heat Wave Dominates

An early glance at the forecast for Memorial Day reveals very hot temperatures in store for much of the country, with 90s in Missouri to the Northeast. This would be thanks to a warm front associated with a strong storm system in Canada pulling up all that warm air. Indications are also showing that the air will be pretty humid in the Midwest.

Precipitation looks to be confined to the northeast quadrant of the country, with spotty showers and storms in the region. Florida and the Gulf coast may also get in on some rain.

Alberto Becomes Post-Tropical

Visible Satellite imagery has indicated the dissipation of tropical characteristics of Alberto. As of now, visible imagery is indicating that Alberto is currently a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. I am seeing no indication of any reformation of Alberto as it moves to the northeast.

Severe Weather Targets the Plains Tomorrow

General Risk of Severe Weather

Probability of a severe weather event within 25 miles of any point.
The Storm Prediction Center is looking for a potential severe weather event for tomorrow in the Plains, with the most intense storms possibly being located in Nebraska. This comes as strong winds in the atmosphere will likely create some ample shearing opportunities, leading to the potential formation of a mesoscale severe weather event. This more intense area of activity may very well be hampered by the lack of any formidable instability. I will keep watching this situation, but as of now, I cannot say that things are looking all too supportive for a widespread severe weather event.


Tropical Storm Bud Poses Threat to Mexico

There is a very strong model consensus for Tropical Storm Bud to make landfall as a hurricane in Mexico, as the above image is showing. The models do have conflicting intensity forecasts, but there is indeed a consensus in the works for landfall.

A strong high pressure system will be positioned in the northern Pacific, keeping Bud from shooting out to sea. This high pressure will keep Bud in the relative location it is in, meaning the only solution is for Bud to shift north and east as it tries to get around the high pressure system but inadvertently makes landfall.

There remains a wide spectrum of potential strengths for Bud to achieve. As of now, the highest would be borderline Category 3 hurricane strength, and the minimum would keep Bud in moderate tropical storm status. The NHC forecast, in black, shows a brief Category 1 hurricane strength. I am thinking that this is a pretty reasonable forecast at this time, and I will have another update tomorrow.