Saturday, October 8, 2011

Tropical System Looks to Produce 2+ inches over East Coast in next 5 Days

A tropical system forecast to hug the East Coast could put out over 2 inches of rain in many places in the next 5 days.

The HPC has put the Eastern Seaboard in a broad range of rainfall amounts for the next 5 days. At this time, it does look like this rain will come from a tropical system that will sweep up the coast. This tropical system will not be strong, and will not be windy. This system will be a tropical system at best and may not even amount to a tropical storm. At this time, the system has a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours, which may rise in that time period.

Forecast High Temperatures for October 9

Temperatures for tomorrow, October 9 are warm across the Midwest. Temperatures are forecast to reach the 80s as the skies will remain sunny but breezy out ahead of the advancing cold front currently draped across the central US as of 11 pm CDT October 8. However, in areas of Texas northwards into North Dakota will cool down as the cold front takes effect on temperatures. 

Heavy Precipitation Ongoing Across Texas; Temperatures drop 20 degrees in 24 hours in Texas

Recent satellite, radar and pressure maps indicate some heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Texas. These heavy storms are associated to a cold front extending across the middle of the US. There are also some showers from Oklahoma north into North Dakota, showing just how long this front is. The front is also marked by 24 hour temperature differences below.
24 hour temperatures indicate there has been over a 20 degree temperature drop in North Texas, signifying how strong this front is.

Plains, Midwest experiencing windy conditions

The Plains and Midwest regions are experiencing some pretty windy episodes right now. This current sustained wind speed map indicates that winds are surpassing 22 MPH in Kansas, while surpassing 30 MPH down in Florida! This wind will continue as an advancing cold front marches across the US and eventually will cover the entire area with a cooler air mass.

October 8 Update on La Nina

As of October 8th, the current La Nina is central-based, meaning the coolest temperatures are in the middle of the ENSO monitoring regions. Below is an image of where the ENSO Monitoring regions are.
Putting that together with the current SST (Sea Surface Temperature) Anomalies leads to the conclusion of a central based La Nina with maybe some western-based support. What does this mean right now? Little, if anything. The Nina will continue to change as we work our way into winter. What does this mean for our winter forecast? Nothing- there may have to be some adjustments on the final forecast in Mid-November, but right now we do not feel anything needs to be changed.
We will not be near the computer for a while more. Our sincerest apologies.

Caribbean Waters Remain Warm

Water temperatures in the Caribbean remain very warm as well as waters in the Gulf of Mexico. There's been very little activity in those regions, so the question is- when will some activity start to happen?
The answer: If it happens, it will be soon. The waters are very warm, so any potential development will happen in the Caribbean. We are just waiting to see a prime system to come in that may cause problems. If it does not happen soon, the waters will cool down once again and tropical season will not be a big one for the regions in question.

General Consensus Forms; Strength Forecast to Remain Low for Tropical System

This latest 0z suite of models has formed a good consensus in the possibility and likelihood that this storm will stay just off the coast of the US. In the image above we did create a preferred track for this storm as well as a cone of possibility. This cone of possibility is where the storm could go, but at this point in time we believe this cone will be the areas that could get hit with effects from the storm.
The 0z model consensus also sent out a clear message- this storm will likely remain weak. We here at The Weather Centre agree on this concept, since the storm will not be forming in the still warm waters of the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Soon after development, this system will be moving northward into cooler waters, so anything above a strong tropical storm is unlikely. I could see up to a moderate tropical storm as the highest threat within the realm of possibility.