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Wednesday, June 1, 2011

June 1- Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation (Evening Discussion)

This morning, we reported to you a system that could have potential for brief tropical cyclone formation. We are here to report that the development did not occur, and there is now a much lower chance of tropical cyclone formation.
Below is satellite imagery of the Atlantic.
The system to the west of Florida is the system that had been catching our eye earlier today. The system moved over Florida as a low pressure system only. It now has a 10% chance for tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours.
We are watching another system down by Central America. That area also has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. However, the NHC has indicated that more favorable conditions for development are possible beyond the 48 hour period.
We will be closely watching that system.
However, let's get back to the first system near Florida.
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The latest ensemble suite for this system is more southerly, with the general consensus to take the system across the Gulf of Mexico and potentially into Mexico itself. While you may be thinking that the Gulf of Mexico is perfect for tropical cyclone formation, it just isn't for this system. That's the plain and simple of it.
There is also the intensity ensemble forecast for this system below.
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While the earlier ensembles had been showing a minimum tropical storm strength, the ensembles are more cautious at this point, but still thinking that a partial consensus will be for a tropical storm to form. One aggressive model takes the system into a Category 1 hurricane. However, I do not believe that will happen.

It looks like this system will be more of a simple low pressure system, although I will not rule out the potential for a tropical depression to come out of the system.
We will be closely watching the second system mentioned in this post closely, as the system will be stationary and could become a tropical cyclone going into this weekend.

June 1- 30% chance of tropical cyclone development (Atlantic Ocean)

The National Hurricane Center has outlined a storm system to the east of Florida for possible development  today before moving over Florida and weakening.
However, if the system continues to move west from Florida and reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it could redevelop even stronger and possibly into a tropical cyclone.
Above is the satellite view of the system. We can see the system is small but very compact. Upon looking very closely, it does appear some circulation may be occurring in the system.
We do have ensembles of forecast tracks and intensity.
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This ensemble shows an ensemble of several models for the forecast track of this system. Right now, the popular [track is for the system to cross Florida and keep close to the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the low is forecast to come onshore either on Texas or Louisiana and curve through Texas. A couple models actually take the low through the Plains.
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This is an intensity forecast as of how strong this system could get. All the models bring this system to at least minimal tropical storm system status. 2 models actually get close to Category 1 hurricane status, and one of those models does take the low into that strength category.

In summary, I do expect a potential tropical storm to occur, but it does look like the storm will dissipate as it crosses Florida. Everyone in Florida should be prepared for heavy rains and gusty winds regardless of development, and the Gulf Coast folk should keep an eye to the skies and this blog for further daily, in-depth information.