Today's Featured Post: Updated Long Range Outlook Will be Issued Wednesday at 4:30 PM Central Time.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Notice on Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Release Date

The date of the release has not changed, but times are being aligned.

Schedule for November 5th

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT

Denver, CO under Winter Storm Watch for 2 feet of Snow

120 hour 12z GFS Snowfall Accumulations
Denver, Colorado is one of the cities affected in a multi-state winter storm watch in effect as up to 2 feet may fall in Wyoming and Colorado! Here is the official NWS Watch from the Cheyenne NWS Forecast office, then the Winter Storm Watch from the Denver forecast office.


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A WINTER  
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.   
  
* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
  SNOWY RANGE...WITH 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE  
  RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUCH  
  AS CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE...8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FINALLY  
  IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM SIDNEY TO KIMBALL...5 TO 8 INCHES  
  ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
  
* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER  
  GUSTS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE NEAR ZERO  
  VISIBILITIES FOR COMMUTERS ON INTERSTATES 25 AND 80 IN SOUTHEAST  
  WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  
  
* IMPACTS...SHOULD THE FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MATERIALIZE AS  
  FORECAST...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ALONG  
  INTERSTATES 25 AND 80 FROM SIDNEY TO ARLINGTON. ROADS WOULD  
  BECOME VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS WHERE SNOWFALL IS HEAVIEST.  
  HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE  
  WINTRY CONDITIONS AND ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF  
  VENTURING OUT TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE LATEST FORECASTS.  

Denver, CO Watch Below:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM  
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.   
  
* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING  
  AND THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND  
  CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.   
  
* ACCUMULATION/WIND...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6  
  INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
  
* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...RESULTING  
  IN BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.  
  
* OTHER IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED  
  ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A  
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.   
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR THAT COULD IMPACT  
COMMERCIAL POWER OR TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND  
POSSIBLE WARNING CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

12z GFS shows 10 inches of snow for New York October 29

Today's 12z GFS is indicating snow of 10 inches to fall on New York state on the October 29 period. It looks like this is panning out as a result of several days of model runs showing this solution. If you will remember, back on October 16, we showed the GFS projecting over 2 feet of snow for the region in the Northeast (click here for the post). While I had stated I had low confidence in that happening, I was at that time concerned that the GFS was latching on to a trend, and it appears that is what the GFS has done. I project between 2-12 inches for New York on this Oct. 29-30 period where snowfall is projected at this time to occur. The reason for the big spread in amounts is to account for the fact that the time period of the potential event is still 6 days out, leaving too much room for error to chance a closer range in snowfall amounts.

Tropical Depression 18 Aims for Mexico

Tropical Depression 18 (TD 18) is aiming for Mexico at this hour. Even though it is only a depression, the NHC forecasts this system to grow to Tropical Storm status quickly and go for Mexico.
This does go against the 18z model suite, though, and we are closely watching both the NHC and ensemble tracks as they come out at 7 pm tonight.
18z ensembles

BREAKING: TD 18 has formed

Tropical Depression 18 has been declared by the NHC:
Graphics are not ready yet but will be issued when they are ready.