Sunday, June 19, 2011

June 19: Tornado Warning- Alvin, CO



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 915 PM MDT

* AT 836 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF WAUNETA...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT
  35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALVIN.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 258 AND 269.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Cambridge, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FURNAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 920 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMBRIDGE...OR 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  NORTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOLBROOK...HENDLEY AND ARAPAHOE.

June 19: Tornado Warning- South of North Platte, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 928 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MALONEY STATE
  RECREATION AREA...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE MALONEY STATE RECREATION AREA AROUND 940 PM CDT.
  COTTONWOOD CANYON STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA AROUND 955 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE HIGHWAY 83
MILE MARKER 70.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Spencer, TN


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/1100 PM EDT/

* AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST
  AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  PIKEVILLE...OLD CUMBERLAND...MOUNT CREST...PALIO AND BRAYTON.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Imperial, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CHASE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 900 PM MDT

* AT 806 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IMPERIAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
  CHASE COUNTY.

June 19: Tornado Warning (Multiple Tornadoes Reported)- Indianola, NE



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN RED WILLOW
COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INDIANOLA...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

MULTIPLE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF INDIANOLA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 101.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Lamar, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN CHASE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT

* AT 733 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT VALLEY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF
  HOLYOKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAMAR AROUND 740 PM MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE HIGHWAY 6
MILE MARKER 10 AND HIGHWAY 61 MILE MARKER 50.

June 19: Tornado Warning (Funnel Cloud Reported)- McCook, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL RED WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 833 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
  NEAR MCCOOK. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR
  SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  INDIANOLA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 84 AND 101.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 19.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Curtis, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF STOCKVILLE...OR 15 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF CURTIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MEDICINE CREEK RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA AND HIGHWAY 18 MILE
  MARKER 20.

June 19- Tornado Warning (Tornado on Ground): Dwight, KS


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 815 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LATIMER...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HERINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITE CITY...PARKERVILLE AND DWIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Brule, NE


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN PERKINS...
SOUTHWESTERN KEITH AND SOUTHEASTERN DEUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
MDT...

AT 633 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD WITH
STRONG ROTATION.  A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOLDENEYE STATE WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF BIG SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BRULE...INTERSTATE 80 MILE MARKER 110...INTERSTATE 80 MILE MARKER
  120 AND HIGHWAY 61 MILE MARKER 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Sterling, CO


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
  EAST CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 715 PM MDT

* AT 628 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF FLEMING...OR 20 MILES EAST OF STERLING. THIS STORM WAS
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WAGES...ST
  PETERSBURG...PAOLI...HAXTUN...FLEMING AND FAIRFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

June 19- Tornado Warning (Tornado On the Ground)- Max, NE



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...

AT 605 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF MAX...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN DUNDY AND NORTHWESTERN
  HITCHCOCK COUNTIES.

June 19: Tornado Warning (Funnel Cloud Spotted)- Red Willow Reservoir State Recreation Area, NE


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
  SOUTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 714 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 9
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAYES CENTER. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.
  DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RED WILLOW RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA AND HIGHWAY 83 MILE
  MARKER 30.

June 19: Tornado Warning- Sixteen-Mile Corner, CO


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 613 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF
  SIXTEEN-MILE CORNER...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF JULESBURG. THIS STORM WAS
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  SIXTEEN-MILE CORNER...OVID AND JULESBURG.

June 19- Fire Warning (Evacuations Reccomended): Kendall County, TX

TXC259-200030-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
TEXAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
420 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
KENDALL COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

A FIRE HAS STARTED IN KENDALL COUNTY AT MILE MARKER 533 TO
MILE MARKER 530 ON INTERSTATE 10 IN KENDALL COUNTY...WEST
OF INTERSTATE 10.

IF YOU ARE WITHIN 1 TO 3 MILES OF THIS LOCATION WEST OF
INTERSTATE 10...FROM MILE MARKER 533 TO MILE MARKER 530...
YOU NEED TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

IF YOU ARE IN DANGER AND CANNOT EVACUATE FROM THIS AREA...
PLEASE CALL 911.

$$

June 19- Tornado Warning: Sidney, NE

Dangerous storm will affect mainly rural areas of cheyenne county. Until 445 pm cdt

June 19- Day 2 Update (12:57 pm CDT)


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB...SERN SD...SRN
   MN...AND MUCH OF IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
   CAROLINAS...
   
   ...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID
   MO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG DEVELOPING LOW/UPPER VORTICITY MAX
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE WRN US
   LONG WAVE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES FROM SASK INTO
   ERN ALTA.  MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREAT
   BASIN LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
   BEFORE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER WRN KS AT 20/12Z IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW
   SURGES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVERTAKES A LEADING DRY
   LINE OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A CAPPING
   INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG EML IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE PLAINS WARM
   SECTOR UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE ELEVATED
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
   FRONT MOVING NWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY.
   
   ...ERN NEB...SERN SD...SRN MN...AND MUCH OF IA...
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THIS
   REGION DURING THE DAY WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER
   LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING THROUGH THE SRN/ERN QUADS OF THE PLAINS
   UPPER LOW.  ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE
   LOW AND WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH
   STRONGER CELLS.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID
   AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB INTO SERN SD...SRN MN AND
   NRN IA WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE
   UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN THE
   CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT OVER ERN NEB.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF IA
   DURING THE EVENING. THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND WITH
   INITIAL STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERAL
   STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW
   LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER DARK WITH CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN KS SWD INTO OK AND NRN TX...
   STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN KS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE WEAKENS THE CAP.  MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY NARROW
   AXIS OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT
   MOVES INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
   OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
   A FEW TORNADOES.  THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE
   WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN THE
   PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS AND THE COLD
   FRONT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER SUNSET.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE
   CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO NRN TX AS DYNAMIC FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. 
   HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING INITIAL DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS IN
   OK...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS
   THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER OH VALLEY AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
   CAROLINAS...
   ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATELY STRONG
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   MOVE SEWD WITH TIME AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE MORE
   FAVORABLE DIURNAL PERIOD FOR SEVERE SYSTEMS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. 
   THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH RES WINDOW WRF MODEL RUNS SHOWING
   BOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND 21/00Z. 
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   THESE REGIONS.

June 19- SPC Multimedia Briefing Screenshot & Link

This is a screenshot from the Storm Prediction Center's Multimedia Briefing, displaying the various severe weather probabilities as well as the caption in the blue box.
For the entire video, click below. The briefing is experimental and will not be updated today.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4

June 19- Tropical Depression TWO-E Morning Discussion

Tropical Depression TWO-E has formed. It is currently offshore of Mexico and will move NNW, potentially making landfall in Mexico. After that, it will move west and dissipate into the Friday time period.
I'm sorry for the very very short update, but there's no material I feel should be posted after this map above was issued.
I will issue a more in-depth discussion tonight.

June 19, 2011: Storm Action Day declared

Today, June 19 has been declared a Storm Action Day for the moderate risk of severe weather in the Central Plains.
Click the link under the TorWarn system where it says there is a moderate risk for severe storms today for today's severe weather discussion.

June 19- Moderate Risk Severe Weather Discussion

This is a MODERATE RISK Severe Weather Discussion. 
There is a moderate risk in effect for:
-Northwest Kansas
-Extreme SW Iowa
-Extreme NW Missouri
-Much of south Nebraska


Today's severe weather discussion will be the Storm Prediction Center's Public Severe Weather Outlook and then my own take on this situation below the outlook.


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
          SOUTHWEST IOWA
          NORTHERN KANSAS
          NORTHWEST MISSOURI
          SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE
   CAROLINAS.
   
   A LARGE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEEPEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
   NORTHERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
   OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
   RISK OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. 
   THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING CLUSTER DURING THE
   EVENING WITH A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
   DARK.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.
My take on this severe weather is that today's storms will probably contain at least one 
tornado. That's just the plain fact of it.
These storms are setting up to go supercellular, and once that happens, rotation will only need to take place and up goes a tornado warning.
However, this isn't doomsday, either. This is still just a moderate risk of storms. While it is something to keep a close eye on, this event likely won't be a horrendous outbreak like 
back in April 25-27.
I will issue updates to keep everyone up to the minute of developments.
Current Hail outlook (Likely triggered moderate risk area)

Current Tornado Threat

Current High Wind threat