Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Forecast Discussion #2 Feb. 22 2011

18z GEFS has shifted slightly more north and is stronger.
The GEFS is what makes up the GFS. They are many members that come together to form the GFS model.
At this time, reports are in that some members were far north and much stronger.
That in mind, have begun to become optimistic about this storm for a hit on the Great Lakes.

GEFS (GFS Ensemble) Moves North & Stronger

Below is the 12z and 18z images from GEFS in order. Same time frame. Note how it is more north and stronger.

One week until Canada/Europe Spring forecast

1 week until the Canada/Europe Spring forecast is issued.

Potential for Severe Weather Outbreak Feb. 24-26

There is quite a potential for a severe weather outbreak coming through the South with this next storm system. Below is an SPC graphic.
We see a Slight Risk area for severe storms in the South. Also, judging by the 30% severe area, I am expecting an area of the slight risk to turn into a Moderate Risk area tomorrow. Below is Accuweather's take on the storm situation.
Also below is Weather.com's graphic.
A more in-depth analysis will be issued tomorrow

Forecast Discussion Feb. 22 2011

Focus has turned to the potential winter storm that may impact the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
GFS model was deemed an outlier by weather forecasters this morning, but many/all models have been wading south to the GFS, mystifying many observers of model data.
A reputed meteorologist reported that, including the Blizzard of 2011, storms in a set-up like this one may begin forecasting too far south. This meteorologist seemed to be indicating a north turn around by the models is still possible. The storm remains a couple days away.
At this time, The Weather Centre sees this storm as incredibly complex. Will not issue maps until tomorrow for most accuracy; see no point in making obsolete maps.
The Weather Centre believes the models are behaving strangely by all following one model deemed an outlier. Even the ECMWF, labeled consistent in this storm, shifted south.
Will continue monitoring this situation.
With that storm comes severe weather concern.
At this time, probability is high that at least a moderate outbreak of severe weather will occur.
Any developments will be monitored.