Sunday, October 2, 2011

Your Wake-Up Forecast: Valid 7 AM (CDT) October 3

This is your 7 AM Wake-Up forecast for October 3.
Real-Feel Temperature
Your 7 AM Real-Feel temperature will be pretty chilly tomorrow morning. Temperatures will start out in the 30's for some areas in the Midwest back through the Ohio Valley as clear skies take away the previous day's gathered heat. The Plains and more of the Midwest, even down into the South, will experience some 40's as they wake up. Some fruits could become damaged by these cooler temperatures, so farmers should take precautions. The West will wake up to a variety of temperatures, mainly within the 40-50 range, but the mountains will wake up to below 40 degrees.
Actual Temperatures
Actual temperatures will be slightly higher than the real-feel temperatures, probably a few degrees higher than the real-feel temperatures. However, it is still advised you wear a jacket as real-feel temperatures can make you feel colder than you actually are and may affect your body differently.
Surface Winds
Surface winds won't be horribly significant, with pockets of higher winds in the Dakotas and Southern Plains.
3-Hour Precipitation
The Northeast will wake up to some rain not accumulating to anything big, but probably around .2-.4 inches accumulation. Portions of the Plains may get in on a couple sprinkles while the West Coast will get a batch of rain.
Wind Chill
The wind chill below 40 degrees will be present in portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes, but the Ohio Valley and portions of the Southeast will get a larger area of below 40 degree wind chills. The Colorado Mountains will also keep wind chills below 40 degrees.

Colorado Mountains to get First Significant Snowfall of Season

The Colorado mountains look to get their first significant snowfall this season, as upwards of 1 foot of snow is anticipated in the city of Telluride. This could be the beginning of skiing season, but if not, it's certainly a good first step for the mountain snows.

ECMWF Shows Tropical System Uncomfortably Close to Florida in Oct. 10-15 timeframe

The ECMWF is once again calling  out for a tropical system to be uncomfortably close to the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico, but this time it's for the Eastern Seaboard. This image from the 0z ECMWF shows a tropical system ominously close to Florida at a level that would definitely concern me. But there is a reason I believe this October 10-15 timeframe is something to be on a heightened state of alert for.
I came across Joe Bastardi (Chief Meteorologist at Weatherbell, Former Chief Long-Range Meteorologist at Accuweather) in a video where he addressed hurricane concerns. He outlines the October 10-15 period as a period in which may have a better potential for a tropical system to form in the Caribbean. The reason being, is that a high pressure system will settle over the Eastern US. If that happens, Bastardi believes a low could enter warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean and develop. While using examples like Hurricanes Wilma, Hazel, i'm definitely thinking there is some logic behind this, and that the ECMWF is calling a tropical system in the timeframe for a reason. We will keep a close watch on this system.