Tuesday, July 23, 2013

CFS Consistently Showing Cold Winter Ahead

The CFS model has been showing forecasts depicting a cold Eastern US winter for well over a month now, leading to speculation that this model may be on to something.

The CFS model performed well in its prediction for last winter, indicating a likelihood for above normal temperatures across the Northern US in its forecasts roughly a year ago this month. While the winter of 2012-2013 verified with above normal temperatures across the Eastern and Central US, the model did get the gist of a warmer than normal nation for that winter. It appears that this year's forecast shown above for December 2013 (left) and January 2014 (right) may be trying to accomplish the same feat.

I have been doing extensive research and work into items I plan on using for my Official winter forecast. Some of these items are not that favorable for a real winter, while some items do support a chillier winter this year. I will put it all together when the forecast is released this September, but this prolonged trend of a cold winter by the CFS model is something to watch for. I'm not saying it will define my overall forecast, but this cold weather trend will be accounted for in the future.