The SPC has outlined a long range severe weather threat for a few days away.
As the image of 500mb heights from the ECMWF shows, a strong storm system will provoke a regional severe weather outbreak.
Image 2 shows the SPC outlook. Day 6 is 5 days away.
Again, I am on a short vacation, so this is all I can give until tomorrow.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
(Notice: This forecast was made yesterday, April 6, as I am not able to be by the computer today, April 7)
A progressing cold front will continue to crash into warm air brought up by the warm front currently in place in Michigan. A squall line of sorts is expected, but mostly showers and lighter thunderstorms. Nothing too severe is expected, but a few strong storms are possible.
Isolated rain showers will be patrolling the area, mainly in Montana.
Residents may want to keep an eye to the sky as a strong storm system swirls offshore. A trough could produce some showers in the state.
The central portion of the Eastern Seaboard may be cloudy with a spotty shower as a trough will be present in the area.
A stalled front, mainly in Texas, could produce some stronger showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Today's Hotspot: Central Plains
As a cold front moves eastward, it will crash into warm air brought north by a warm front extending into Minnesota and Iowa. This will likely create some showers and thunderstorms, but nothing on a huge scale is expected. A slightly severe storm cannot be ruled out.
A snowstorm will move north, leaving lingering snow showers in far northwest North Dakota. Rain will be present in northeast Montana and the western half of North Dakota as the system exits. Farther out west, in Idaho and western Montana, icy conditions are expected as near freezing conditions will provide for some mixing rain and snow showers.
Icy conditions remain possible as a passing icy shower cannot be ruled out.