Tuesday, October 11, 2011

12z GFS Depicts 3 Stronger Lows Going Thru Central/South Illinois in Eerily Similar Track- Coincidence or Pattern?

The 12z run of the GFS has brought to our attention something potentially significant. This GFS run shows 3 storms (on the stronger side) all going through Central/South Illinois over the course of 16 days. Of those 3 storms, only 2 are considered in the realm of possibility- the 3rd storm is forecast about 13 days away. 13 days away is not reliable in the least.

What does this mean?
If this 12z GFS run verifies, it very well could be a new part of the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). The LRC is a pattern that sets up between the October 1st period and November 10th period. This LRC is an annual occurrence and is NEVER THE SAME. While it may possess similar traits as the year before, no one pattern is ever the same. Since we are in the LRC forming timeframe, this does ultimately lead to the question: Is this going to be a pattern for the entire winter??
We will keep you updated with a post on the new 18z run that will come out shortly.


The Release Date for the FINAL edition of The Weather Centre's 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be issued on NOVEMBER 5TH at 12:00 PM CDT.

Prospects for Snow in Midwest/Ohio Valley Rising as ECMWF Joins Snow 'Camp'

Pre-Reading Notes:
Vocabulary: 'Camp' is a term you will hear often this winter if you read this blog frequently. In the weather enthusiast world, a 'camp' is defined as a group of models favoring one solution to a weather event over another group. Example: The ECMWF/GFS models are in the snow camp vs the GEM model in the rain camp. In the example, the ECMWF/GFS are favoring snow for an area versus the GEM model favoring rain for the same area in the same time frame.
(end pre-reading notes)

The ECMWF has joined the camp of models favoring a cold blast following a strong low pressure system. In the midst of that cold blast, some precipitation may still be ongoing on the back of that low, introducing the seasons first snow flurries for the region. Here's the latest 12z ECMWF model.
Hour 192 (October 19)
The top right image is the one of most importance. The dashed red line sinking down below the Great Lakes region is referred to as the 540 line. It is basically the line where, theoretically, rain switches to snow for areas north of the 540 line. Another dashed line farther south isn't something we need to worry about.
The 12z GFS is now predicting a slightly higher amount of snow for cities like Chicago and Gary, IN for this 12z run. Below is the predicted snow depth for Hour 192- the same timeframe as the ECMWF image above.
The GFS is predicting as much as over an inch of snow to fall in areas close to Lake Michigan extending eastward into Ohio, Michigan and even into New York. Below is the GFS's take on the 540 line.
The blue area is considered the air north of the 540 line, so the separating boundary/540 line is the green/light blue border on the map above.

What do we expect from this system? We really don't want to say much as it is still a while off and winter weather is harder to forecast for the models, but as of right now, the areas above are looking at a fairly good chance for snow for the time being.

Gusty Winds present over the Plains

This was posted my phone, so cannot write  description.

Winds are sustained above 10 MPH in the Plains. click on the link for current wind speed s http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx

October 11 Daytime Forecast

A frontal boundary wil continue to slowly slide eastward and bring showers to the area circled in the light green area. This includes Illinois, Wisconsin, and even down into Missouri and Arkansas. Temperatures will struggle to reach 80 but upper 70's sounds like a frequent occurrence for today.

A subtropical low we had been watching is now onshore and producing rain across the majority of the southeast region. This rain will continue throughout the day, with clouds basically all over that region. Highs will be in the 60's making for a raw day.

High pressure is in control. Highs will reach the 70's in the southern portions of the Northeast, but Maine will struggle to hit 60 today.

Rain will be ongoing on the upper regions of the coast as a trough moves onshore bringing showers. The mountains will continue to put out rain and snow, depending on your elevation. Temperatures will reach 80 in California and 60's in Washington state.

A trough will be stretched across the Plains, but it does not appear any rain will come from that for today. Temperatures will be in the 70s for the entire region, with higher 70 degree marks down south in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas regions.

Wake-Up Conditions for October 11

Current Temperatures
Good morning everyone- this is your 7 AM wake-up conditions briefing for this October 11. As you wake up, it will be a chilly morning in the Western Plains, with temperatures in the 40's across the region in the wake of a cold front over the weekend. Farther out east we find milder temperatures in the 50's and 60's across the Midwest and Southeast, making for a pleasant morning. These milder temperatures also find their way into the East Coast, but Maine is waking up to upper 30's temperatures this morning!
Your current radar (from Intellicast) indicates an area of showers ongoing across the Southeast, likely with some areas of embedded thunder closer to the coastal regions. There is also a slight indication on radar of where the cold front is- if you look at the Illinois/Iowa border, you can see a rain line stretching across that border. That's the cold front that will eventually move eastward. That front for now, however, is producing showers across the Midwest. The mountains way out West are experiencing a mix of snow and rain, with some snow likely occurring in the higher elevations.