Today's Featured Post: Updated Long Range Outlook Will be Issued Wednesday at 4:30 PM Central Time.

Monday, September 5, 2011

September 5: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- Near Columbus, GA


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
HARRIS COUNTY...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO LOCATED NEAR MULBERRY GROVE...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAMILTON...WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY...F.D.
ROOSEVELT STATE PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

September 5: Tornado Warning (Trained Spotter Tornado Report)- Near Atlanta, GA


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN COBB AND SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTIES...

AT 233 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POWDER SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOST
MOUNTAIN PARK...JIM R MILLER PARK...DUE WEST...MARIETTA...WHITE WATER
PARK...KENNESAW...ACWORTH...KENNESAW STATE UNIVERSITY...SANDY PLAINS
AND SWEAT MOUNTAIN.

TROPICAL ENVIRONMENTS LIKE WE HAVE TODAY CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES THAT
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND GIVE LITTLE TIME FOR WARNING.  SUCH TORNADOES
ALSO FORM WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW
TO RESPOND QUICKLY IN THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED IN YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

Katia will go out to sea; Unreliable CMC model hits New England

The NHC is predicting Katia to go out to sea, as it appears will happen. The East Coast will likely be safe this time, but there is another wave going off the coast of Africa. That's a different story. Katia will likely strengthen and become a major hurricane soon. As that happens, a trough will break into the western portion of the Azores High, allowing Katia to slip through the cracks.
This is a spaghetti model of the models tracking Katia. See the light blue line that scrapes New England? That's the CMC model. It is considered a very unreliable model and will be discounted at this time. Every other model lets Katia go out to sea, and I believe that is the best solution at this time.

September 5 Moderate Risk Severe Weather Discussion

Overall Risk

Tornado Risk
We are expecting a very high risk of tornadoes to develop in the southeast associated with remnants of Lee. As those remnants move up the coast, they will likely produce tornadoes today. It looks like atmospheric spinning (helicity) will be at a level favorable for tornadoes. Combined with shearing levels and a strong lower level jet stream (basically a mini jet stream at a lower atmospheric level), tornadoes will be likely. Review tornado safety plans today if you live in Atlanta and Birmingham. Please be careful, as it is uncommon to see a 15% chance of a tornado in any area.
I will be issuing tornado warnings for the big cities today to keep people informed.