Friday, December 9, 2011
|Hour 348 of 12z GFS. Precipitation above thick blue line is mainly snow.|
What is much more intriguing is how in-sync the ECMWF and GFS 12z models were today.
The ECMWF model can only go out to hour 240, whereas the GFS can go out to hour 384.
•High pressure offshore the West Coast.
•General high pressure offshore East Coast
•General idea of a low pressure system progressing eastward (ECMWF is slower)
•Low Pressure offshore Alaska
•Cold Air present in NW US, being pulled eastward by low pressure mentioned above.
•Dashed Red Lines in relatively similar places
The big thing is how the features over the oceans are very similar. This is because the Pacific is the one that usually supplies the bigger storms, and to see these two major models very similar to each other could potentially mean that the ECMWF is buying into the idea of a Christmas Day snowstorm, which would dramatically increase my level of confidence for this storm.
The timeframe that the ECMWF will get its first glance at the potential storm in its timeframe is the December 13-15 period. Until then, model comparisons like the ones shown above can help determine if the ECMWF likes the prospects for this storm or not.
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