Thursday, January 13, 2011

18Z GFS Model Track

I will stick with my graphic issued on the Winter Storm Page despite the GFS.
We're still 4-6 days out.

Significant Midwest Storm (January 17-19th) 00z GFS Analysis

This is the significant Midwest storm analysis potential for January 17th-19th. This is a 00z run, which is fairly old. I will be posting the new 18z run in a new post. So above, a deepening low will be in the Ohio Valley. As it deepens, the snow will become much more widespread and heavy over particularly the Southern Great Lakes.
Above, 6 hours later, the deepening low appears to be pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, thus enhancing snowfall totals in the Southern Great Lakes.
Above, another 6 hours further, the storm begins to what may be collapsing, and the rain/snow line pushes up. However, most areas remain in an area of snow.
Above, still 6 hours further, the storm becomes defined in the Ohio Valley, bringing rain with it. Still, back in the Midwest, a band of heavy snow is thought to be occurring in North Illinois, with widespread light to moderate snow over the entire Midwest.
Finally, in the final 6 hours, the low moves off. The Midwest remains in the snow, and it slowly decreases in intensity throughout the next 18-24 hours.
Another analysis will be posted next.