Saturday, February 26, 2011

0z NAM comes in with snowy prospects

For many, this storm had had everyone in the line for rain.
But with the new 0z NAM, people are in the line for snow as well.
Below are two images from the same time frame. The first is a big jumble map, but the second is forecasted radar.

Model Analyses Feb. 26 18z

Model Discussion...
ECMWF/GFS Ensembles as well as actual ECMWF/GFS models have come in line with the Weather Centre's SIHM model preference to hold the push of warm air and rain/snow line to WI/IL border.
GEM continues to be a consistent outlier, but the SIHM does not agree with that solution.
Will prefer Central IL track and keep rain/snow line on WI/IL border.

2011 Canada Spring Forecast

This is the 2011 Canadian Spring Forecast.
Edited February 26.
This spring will be cooler in many regions as La Nina continues throughout the region, but others will experience warmer than normal conditions. I have outlined the specific areas below.
I do believe that, as spring wears on, people in Southern Canada will experience warmer than normal conditions, as well as infrequent heat waves, pushing temperatures as high as the low 70's in places.
There is forecast concern of the area by Alaska, where temperatures may actually be more warm than cooler, but I do predict that at least some of the area outlined in cooler conditions will get overall cooler conditions.

Precipitation-Wise, I believe storms will continue to affect the area, pushing the precipitation above normal in many areas.
However, the southern Canada areas mentioned in the heavy snowfall for this winter was due to a pattern in the US. That pattern is predicted to break down. Due to that, the precipitation outlook may look odd to people in Southern Canada. See the image below.

2010-2011 Winter Forecasts are closed

The pages for the 2010-2011 Winter Forecasts are now being shut down and will be replaced in coming days by the 2011 Spring Forecasts.

Strong Low pressure to move through Midwest.

A strong low pressure system will move through the Midwest and produce a mainly rain event across the area. Below is an idea of the Canadian GEM model of how much precipitation in a 48 hour period could be expected in rain form.

Big Storm shows some hope of backside snow

This is an image of the 0z GEM Canadian model run. That blue line is the Rain/Snow live. When there is a certain area, from the rain/snow line to Chicago in this case, wintry precipitation is likely to be mixed with rain. This could create hazardous conditions and flooding, and this situation will have to be monitored.

Model Analyses Feb. 26

0z ECMWF- The ECMWF appears to take a track through South IL, but this is unconfirmed.
0z NOGAPS- The NOGAPS has taken the low farther south into South IL.
6z GFS- Takes 2-low solution; main low goes east.
0z GEM- The GEM is still all alone, taking a two low solution, darting north into Michigan.
6z WRF- The WRF takes the low through south IL.

Model Discussion: This massive warm air push is becoming more clear as the SIHM model begins to grasp it. However, the SIHM does not push the warm air up as far, and takes the low in Central Illinois.