Thursday, May 10, 2012

NCEP Ensembles Highlight Tropical Cyclone Potential

In the image below, the NCEP 12z Ensembles based at the ESRL indicated high precipitation over Cuba, which may mean that these ensembles are in line with this morning's FIM model post.

I am thinking that this would not hit the Gulf of Mexico for now and it may ride the coast on the potential that it even develops.

I cannot confirm that it is even showing a tropical system, as the MSLP charts are not as specific as I would like them to be.


Jet Stream To Remain Zonal; Warm Spells To Come

The 12z 8-10 day 500mb height anomalies appear to be forming a consensus that would involve warm weather to affect much of the eastern US.

The tight lines drawn together on the Canada/US line appear to indicate the jet stream pattern and how it appears to be flowing zonally (on the US/Canada border). This zonal flow would keep the coldest air to the north and let the warm air flow freely down in the US.
However, this also does mean that any storm systems that come through into the southern Plains would remain there for a while, as there are no intense upper level winds to shift it away.

More to come.

FIM Displays Tropical Cyclone in Caribbean for Late May

(Pre-warning: This is a long range forecast at the very end of the model's run. Chances of this verifying are low at this time, but could very well change in the future.)

The FIM model is showing the potential for a tropical cyclone to be present in the Caribbean region on May 24th. Before we go any further, while the chances of this verifying are low, as mentioned in the pre-warning, the GFS model was also showing something very close to this solution in yesterday's 12z run. While it is no longer showing the same solution, I find it very possible that these two models may form a consensus at any time, as both show a tropical system in the same timeframe- just a different track.
I will be bringing more information as it becomes available.