|Made May 14, 2012|
For days, the FIM model has been projecting a tropical system to impact Cuba, Florida and possibly hitting the southern portions of the East Coast, although that has been in debate. What I have been seeing is what appears to be the monsoonal trough stationed in Central America at this time. Because convergence of moisture and winds are associated along the trough line, it is only a matter of time before something happens. Seeing as temperatures are above the necessary 80 degrees (F) in the red circle, and there will be converging winds and moisture in the area, showers and thunderstorms may very well propagate east into the Atlantic and fire up a tropical system, as is being projected now in the late May timeframe.
Gulf of Mexico
Temperatures in the area have surpassed 80 degrees (F) in the southern half of the region, an essential ingredient for tropical activity. Now, the monsoonal trough is not near the Gulf of Mexico, so there is not as much of a force to bring massive amounts of warm air into the atmosphere to make some thunderstorms. However, this could be the focal point for systems later on, and it will have to be watched.
Open Atlantic Waters
A ridge of high pressure appears to be extending into the region highlighted, and this would indeed discourage any storms from forming in the area, but also enhancing the potential for landfalling systems.