Monday, May 27, 2013

Tornadoes, Large Hail Possible in Kansas This Memorial Day

There is potential for severe thunderstorms and multiple tornadoes across portions of the Plains on this Memorial Day 2013.

Development of showers and thunderstorms is expected as we move into the evening as a result of low pressure beginning to evacuate the West Coast in favor of the Plains area. The Northern Plains should encounter a slightly less active environment when compared to northern Texas, and this is shown by the Tornado Potential shading being placed more towards the central and southern Plains at this time. I expect storms in the red shading to be strong to severe, although a full-on outbreak is not anticipated at this time. Those in the shaded red region should be alert for strong winds, hail and an isolated tornado.

Convective WRF model projects the development of supercellular storms in central Kansas, and my Tornado Potential region was shifted to account for this prediction. Lower level jet stream is expected to strengthen in speed and size over this region, and at least substantial instability will add to what could be a tornadic equation. I expect any potential tornadoes to affect central and north Kansas into northeast Kansas rather than the whole state.

I used a statewide map to illustrate my primary areas of concern. A north-to-south line from Logan to Coldwater, and northeast-ward line from Bluff City to Mound City will contain the area I believe is at risk for supercell formation. I don't think it's a good idea to project tornado potential, but using the parameters I have at the moment, I have a good idea of where we can expect supercell formation later this evening.