Friday, February 25, 2011
5:17pm The Weather CentreMain concern with forecast is strong low pressure to go through US Saturday into Monday.
Models still not getting a good feel for this storm. However, the SIHM in-house model believes a southern track is more likely, given consistency and model quantity.
Extra Forecast Discussions for model differences likely.
ECMWF- Takes old GFS solution with two lows. Main low keeps same track as 0z GFS.
GFS- One low with a north track.
NOGAPS- Takes ECMWF solution with main low farther south, increasing snow potential for South Great Lakes.
GEM- Takes North solution through South Great Lakes.
WRF- ECMWF solution, main low a bit more north than NOGAPS model.
GEFS (6z-12z comparison)- 12z run had low more north, weaker.
UKMET- Appears to take a one-low solution, south track.
JMA- Appears to have a south track.
SOUTH TRACK: ECMWF, NOGAPS, WRF, UKMET, JMA
NORTH TRACK: GFS, GEM
SIHM Discussion- The In-House computer model says that the low will take more of an ECMWF solution, riding on consistency. However, the SIHM does flirt with the GFS solution in runs as well. Will monitor.
Overall discussion- Will take ECMWF track, but curious to see how the supposed push of warm air above the low will play out. SIHM doesn't pull the warm air up as far, more of a NOGAPS solution with the rain/snow line on Wisconsin/IL border.
Edit: GFS has not had consistency, even though all models took a two-low solution as GFS did. Very odd.
This analyses is for the Feb. 28-March 1st storm.
ECMWF- Faster. SOUTHERN TRACK.
NOGAPS- Little change. SOUTHERN TRACK.
GEM- Now goes NE into North IL. NORTHERN TRACK
GFS- Develops two low pressures. One goes north, the other goes south track. UNDEFINED TRACK.
WRF- NORTH TRACK