Thursday, June 21, 2012

NHC Raises Gulf of Mexico System Formation Chance to 70%

The National Hurricane Center has raised the system being monitored in the Gulf of Mexico to 70 percent, with the ECMWF and CMC models lashing a tropical system at Texas in the next 7 days.


ECMWF Threatens Florida; CMC Lashes Out at Texas with Tropical System

The ECMWF model is developing an area of showers and thunderstorms currently in the Gulf into a full blown tropical cyclone. While it is small, the cyclone does appear to have a low enough central pressure to be a fair tropical system. It is expected to hit Florida in the process of its movement, and will have to be closely monitored for potential landfall.

The CMC model, on the other hand, retrogrades the system westward towards Mexico while achieving a central pressure reading below 980 millibars. Again, the system appears to be small but intense, and both models will have to be closely watched, as either scenario would result in a potential threat to life and property.