Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Potential Snowstorm Lower GL Update #1.3

I know, you're sick of these updates.
Well, I will not stop serving you all the weather you need to know. Below are forecast snow fall maps 2 days from now. The below image is the probability for Snow greater than 4 inches. Usually it happens in the Moderate areas. Above is the image for Probability of 8 or more inches. That usually gives people in the slight area 6 inches.
So we've got quite a clipper coming on, not to mention the lake effect. This actually might only be the clipper's snow- the forecast accumulations don't go out farther than 2 days from now. We'll see tomorrow.

Potential Snowstorm Lower GL Update #1.1

This is a mini update to insert the forecast low tracks for the clipper supposed to strike Chicago.
Sometimes, a meteorologist can make predictions based on that. The image is from the NCEP.

Potential MW Snowstorm

This is a bulletin for a potential MW snowstorm 10-15 days out.

This was issued because meteorologists are talking about Midwest Cities receiving snow- sticking snow- in the 10-15 day period.
Yes, I know. A long way out. But ensembles can help with that.

The mass ensemble run shows 7 out of 12 ensembles with a storm coming through.
However, 1 ensemble shows the thickness too high for snow, and another one shows the thickness right for snow and ice.
So 5/12 ensembles are predicting snow in that period.
Chance of SNOW occurring: 42%
Chance of ANY PRECIP occurring: 58%

What is really surprising is that one frame way out there shows 9 out of 12 ensembles saying Precipitation.
6 of those ensembles show SNOW will be OK to occur.
1 of the 9 ensembles show ICE may occur.
2 of the 9 ensembles show RAIN may occur.
Chance of SNOW: 50%
Chance of ICE: 8%
Chance of RAIN: 13%
Chance of ANY PRECIP: 75%
For this far out, those are VERY good chances.

In the VERY NEXT frame, 10 of the 12 ensembles show precip.
8 of those 10 show SNOW.
1 of that 7 is a TOSSUP, but FAVORS SNOW. That same ensemble shows the heaviest precip.
2 of the original 10 ensembles snow a mix is possible, but favoring SNOW.
Chance of SNOW: 83%
Chance of ICE: 8%
Chance of RAIN: Roughly 5%.

In the NEXT FRAME, 3 of the 12 ensembles show SNOW occurring.
Chance of SNOW: 25%.

In the NEXT FRAME, 4 ensembles show Precip.
2 of the ensembles show SNOW.
2 of the ensembles show RAIN.
Chance of SNOW: 17%
Chance of RAIN: 17%
Chance of ANY PRECIP: 33%
So not too good chances.

On the last frame, the ensembles show 9 of the 12 ensembles producing precip.
All of them look to be a MIX except two.
Two of them look to be RAIN.
Chance of ICE: 58%
Chance of RAIN: 17%
That's an exceptional turnout for that far away.

It looks like that there should be a major snow event in the next 2 weeks.
Updates later.

Potential Snowstorm Lower GL Update #1

Let's get right to it!!

The WRF is printing out some very interesting changes. They say that the Alberta Clipper will be stronger and more widespread. It will stick around longer.
The WRF is indicating maybe a half inch of precip from the storm. In snow factors, it is about 2-4 inches.
The WRF type of precip maps are indicating snow for the entire event of this clipper.
WRF Temperatures show that temps should be fine for this event.

Moving to a CMC model, they show that the clipper will strike Chicago right on target. They show it sticking around for about a day.

Moving on to the GFS, they show the snow reaching Chicago faster than the WRF. The WRF says the snow will hit first in Rockford, but the GFS spreads the snow around the Wisconsin Illinois area.
Then, the GFS shows snow sticking around for about a full day before dissipating.
Temps should be fine.
Lake effect snow will stick around in Indiana and Michigan for literally DAYS before another system comes through.

Onto the Navy NOGAPS model, they show the clipper with less strength striking the Michigan area but still affecting both sides of Lake Michigan.
But they also show the thickness to be a bit high in Central Illinois.
However, considering that the count of strike to not is 3-0 (but now 3-1 with this model), the probability of this scenario is low- 25%.

Into a mass ensemble run, 11 out of 12 ensembles say that the clipper will directly strike Chicago. The other one shows it striking the heart of Central Illinois. 12 out of the 12 say the thickness will be fine for snow.
So quite a big chance for the event to occur.

Updates later.