Saturday, February 12, 2011

The Big Thaw is Starting!

Below is a current surface analysis as of 10:00pm CDT.

Incredible Atlantic Storm Draws Cross-Country Dry Slot

In a move only Northeast storms usually produce, the below image shows a current water vapor image in which a dry slot is being dragged across the US.

WCM Created

The WCM (Weather Centre Model) Has been created on the WCM page.
It is a basic forecasting tool forming a consensus on weather happening in the US.
The WCM will eventually include Europe and Canada.

End to the Big Thaw

Day 3-7 Temperature Anomalies

This is the 3-7 minimum average temperature differences. We definitely see the warm up intensifying, with 12-18 degree differences common throughout the Midwest and Plains. We do see the Rockies out west getting heat as the tight temperature difference lines are together. By now, there is a clear Jet Stream map that can come out of this. See the image below.
This is the forecast Jet Stream from the Weather Centre. I do predict the jet stream to be pushed north, letting in mild air. Below is the Day 3-7 Maximum Temperature anomaly.
Even though this is the maximum temperature average difference, the Rockies are less impacted by this. Now, there is definite evidence that in this 3-7 day anomalies, the Plains, Midwest and New England will be under a big thaw.

Day 1-5 Temperature Anomalies

Above is the minimum temperature difference average forecasts. Even though this is minimum, this is still a large difference in temperature changes and directly shows the warm up occurring.
In the Average Maximum temperature difference, we definitely see the most intense warming over the Plains. The Plains have definitely gotten the worst cold of the winter- now they will receive the warmest of this big thaw.

Example of a Feeder

Above, in a current image at publishing time, we have already published on the dry slot. But we see a very defined 'feeder tube' into the storm. This feeder tube is full of moisture and cross country as well, like a dry slot. Again, feeder tubes are most associated with East Coast storms, as they are strong and are fed a different type of moisture by the ocean. The feeder tube is going through the south tip of Texas and the South Florida area. It is also pulled through Mexico.

Example of Dry Slot (2)

This is also a current image at the time it was published, however in water vapor. That dark patch is the dry slot. However, we can see it filling in.

Example of Dry Slot

Above is an example of a dry slot. This is when pure, dry air is pulled along a storm system. Every low pressure system has one.
Typically, cross-country dry slots like this one occur in big East Coast storms. We can see the dry slot across the Southeast and Texas, even back through Mexico. It is cross-oceanic as well, if you can see the dry air way back in the Pacific Ocean into the Atlantic.

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