* TORNADO WARNING FOR... CLARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 1115 PM EDT * AT 1041 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF HARRISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... HARRISON AROUND 1050 PM EDT... DODGE LAKE AROUND 1100 PM EDT... THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS... HARRISON... CLARE... FARWELL... SEBEWA TWP... DODGE LAKE... LONG LAKE HEIGHTS... FRANKLIN TWP... SHERIDEN TWP... LAKE GEORGE... LAKE... LEOTA... MEREDITH... BROWNS CORNER... DOVER...
Today's Featured Post: Extended Forecast Discussion (Part 1) , Part 2 Coming Friday Afternoon (For Sure This Time)
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
We can sort this out into fronts.
WARM FRONT- The 'warm front' in this region is the arm of storms stretching horizontally across Southeast Wisconsin.
COLD FRONT- The 'cold front' in the area is the curving line moving vertically to the east. That is the real bringer of cool air to stabilize the atmosphere.
GUST FRONT- Not visible on radar. However, there is a detected gust front spreading out east and southeast towards Chicago. A gust front is thunderstorm outflow, which is cool air rushing out of storms, hitting the ground and spreading in all directions. It can be detectable by local radars at this time, but not on this regional radar.
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KENOSHA... ROCK...WALWORTH...WAUKESHA...JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN DODGE...EASTERN DANE...RACINE AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT... AT 846 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKHORN...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...AT 835 PM CDT SEVERE ROOF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED 2 MILES WEST OF DELAVAN WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ELKHORN...WILLIAMS BAY...OKAUCHEE LAKE...DELAFIELD...WALES...LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY...HARTLAND...MUKWONAGO...TWIN LAKES...WIND LAKE...CAMP LAKE...PADDOCK LAKE...UNION GROVE...MUSKEGO... FRANKLIN...STURTEVANT...NEW BERLIN...PLEASANT PRAIRIE AND HALES CORNERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS GREEN...ROCK...AND WALWORTH COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL NATRONA COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM MDT... AT 722 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND ROTATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARNED THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CASPER-NATRONA COUNTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...HAIL OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WAS REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 20/26 WEST OF THE CASPER AIRPORT. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BAR NUNN AND HOMA HILLS AROUND 730 PM MDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILEPOSTS 191 AND 210. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL DANE COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT... AT 751 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONONA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MCFARLAND...MARSHALL...I90/94 INTERCHANGE...COTTAGE GROVE... DEERFIELD...CAMBRIDGE...UTICA...DELAVAN AND ROCKDALE.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL JONES AND EAST CENTRAL LINN COUNTIES... AT 802 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR STONE CITY...OR NEAR ANAMOSA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL NATRONA COUNTY IN CENTRAL WYOMING... * UNTIL 715 PM MDT * AT 636 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF POWDER RIVER...OR 29 MILES WEST OF CASPER...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... U.S. HWY 20/26 MILE MARKER 20 AROUND 705 PM MDT. EMIGRANT GAP AROUND 710 PM MDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE U.S. HWY 20/26 BETWEEN MILEPOSTS 10 AND 20.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT * AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VERONA...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIDDLETON...FITCHBURG...OREGON...MADISON CAPITOL SQUARE...MONONA... MCFARLAND...STOUGHTON...MARSHALL...SHOREWOOD HILLS...MAPLE BLUFF... MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT...I90/94 INTERCHANGE...COTTAGE GROVE... DEERFIELD...CAMBRIDGE...CAMP RANDALL STADIUM...HENRY VILAS ZOO... UTICA...DELAVAN AND DEANSVILLE.
There is a tropical storm watch for an area of coastline in Mexico.
As of right now, the main consensus is for the storm to move parallel to the coastline of Mexico.
As Adrian moves into 5 days from now, he will reach cooler waters, which will stabilize Adrian and weaken the system.
Adrian is well built and a good Category 1 hurricane. He will intensify and likely stay away from land, likely moving parallel from shore.
Related: Hurricane Adrian
A cold front is connected to a system of low pressures stretching from Canada into the Plains. The low in Canada will progress eastward, and that cold front will then slowly drift southward and ignite showers and thunderstorms inside the very hot and humid air mass in place.
The Rapid Refresh model is showing the radar being fairly active in that time period, in the 30-35 dbz on the radar, which is considered moderate and known as dark green on radar in the color format.
CAPEs should reach past 3000 j/kg in most areas, possibly over 4000 j/kg in Northwest IL.
There doesn't appear to be a cap in place at this time, meaning that only a bit of forcing should be able to produce showers and storms.
I believe the worst storms will be in the Northwest area of this slight risk region, such as Wisconsin and North Michigan.
|Today's Tornado Outlook|
|Today's Wind outlook|
|Today's Hail outlook|
Adrian is forecast to keep drifting North northwest, then move quicker and at an angle parallel to land. That is the NHC's forecast. The NHC also projects Adrian to reach Hurricane strength at around 10 am CDT today, which appears to be happening by the infrared satellite imagery we will show you next.
At 11pm EDT Sunday, it is now forecasted that Adrian will weaken to a tropical storm again.
Bands of showers and storms associated with tropical cyclones are forming in a very organized fashion.
Adrian is a very small storm, but as stated earlier, is in a rush to get its act together.
That consensus is to keep the storm out to sea, as many models have grouped together and formed that solution. One stray model throws Adrian out towards the Central Pacific Ocean, but I will discount that model as it is the only one with that solution.
There is a sharp drop in intensity about 6 days out. This does not indicate a landfall, but could be from a stronger storm system, cooler waters, there are a lot of things that could lead to Adrian's demise, and we will have to watch and see what does.
Adrian will be strengthening over the next several days and we will bring you updates as they happen.