Monday, August 15, 2011

2011-2012 Winter Forecast: Weekly ENSO Update- August 14-21 2011

The above image is from the trust-worthy ECMWF model ensembles. What we see here is a gradual decline into this winter for ENSO values, indicating a possible La Nina. Values are possible at 0 to -1.5 degrees, but it looks like the general consensus is -.2 to -1. I still anticipate a La Nina to occur this winter.
The CFS model from the Climate Prediction Center indicates values of -.5 to -2.5, but the consensus is down to -1.5, the same strength as last winter's La Nina. This indicates conditions could be similar to last winter, but not the same, as colder conditions are possible than last year.