Thursday, November 18, 2010

Potential New England Heavy Snow Event update #1

This is the 1st update to a possible New England heavy snow event.

Let's get to the skinny of it.

So, a low pressure system will keep up along the Northern portion of the US. A cold front will suddenly develop and blitz through the East US. The low pressure, however, will deepen.

The low pressure will deepen ridiculously. So much that the GFS is kicking out a prediction that by Friday, November 26th, the central pressure could be 976 millibars. That is truly ridiculous.
I think that would be terribly windy.

The 1000-500mb pressure, which defines if precip is snow or rain, will be low enough to create snow in North Maine and Far East Canada. It will bombard areas close to and in Nova Scotia, Canada.

I think that, if the model says what it is saying now, this pressure could be stronger than the mega october storm the Upper Midwest folks experienced.

That's all for now. I will post more updates to keep y'all on the watch.
Only here, at the Weather Centre.

No one provides you more coverage. No one.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #3

This is the 3rd update to a potential Lower Great Lakes Snow.

I have now expanded this into the Wisconsin area.

So! How's your evening? Or morning? Or lunch break? How is your day so far? Mine's good. Let's get to the weather.

I ran the GFS again. I run it a couple times a day. I decided to analyze the map fully and found the 1000-500mb thickness line. The thickness line is what says snow or rain. Anything below the maximum is snow, anything above is rain. Anything relatively close is a mix or ice.

There is a light-moderate area of precip in the Lower Great Lakes and Wisconsin area below the thickness level and does meet snow requirements. It comes in the wake of an intense low pressure.

The date of this event is November 25th. I know I said there was also one on November 23rd, but that one is dicey. We'll get to it anyhow soon.

Anyways, the November 25th event could last from 00z (6am CDT) to about 00z (6am CDT) Nov. 26th. These timings are very unsure, but the snow could waver from light to moderate. It would likely be lighter as the day goes on.

By the way, I'm looking at the GFS pretty concerned. Remember the super October storm in the Upper Midwest? I'm seeing the low pressure I mentioned earlier at a central pressure of 986mb. That is seriously low. I will deliver an update to the New England area after this Great Lakes update.

But seriously: If that plays out as it looks, the New England area could get whapped with wild wind. The thickness would be low enough, so blizzard conditions could occur.

Now, let's move on to that November 23rd event. As I said, this morning's run was pretty dicey, as was last night's. But, let's run it again.

The GFS is telling that there could be some precip, but it is unsure. The model only covers 6 hour intervals, and it's not revealing that area. So, I'm going to take a guess. I think there will be drizzle and probably a light shower. The front will strangthen as it moves through. However, the thickness will not be enough to support snow flakes in the Lower Great Lakes.

I will monitor it, but I will DEFINITELY monitor the November 25th event. When the model starts to show over and over again of the same precip in an area, it's a bigger than normal chance of precip in that area.

There will definetely be more updates as the time goes on.
Only at The Weather Centre.

Potential Southwest Rain Event

This is the first version of a Potential Southwest heavy rain event.
Okay. The risks associated with this storm include the following:
-Wind, Rain and ice.

This is the result of a forecast 992mb low pressure system that will move through the East US as a cold front. It will be very strong, and I fully anticipate a very heavy rain event. Why not snow? Because the 1000-500mb thickness level (the level needed for snow) will be above the maximum. However, the GFS model is displaying the thickness line being somewhat close to the area. Thus, I anticipate at least a little sleet.

Ice? Not much. If any, the thickness will have to be a bit lower an the temps in the clouds lower as well.

Thanks for looking.
Stay tuned for more updates at The Weather Centre.

Potential New England Heavy Snow Event

This is a statement for the Potential Heavy Snowstorm over New England.

The above image is for 6 days from now. It says 7 because today is known as 'Day 1' in the weather world.
Anyways, the image shows a lot of isobars. The more isobars are close together, the windier it is. I usually put together New England with cold weather, so this one was a quick put-together.
This low pressure system is pretty strong with a central pressure of 992 millibars.
At this time, I went over the GFS model, which is showing quite a messy cold front advancing on the New England area. That being said, I checked the temperatures in the clouds at that time.
The temps were actually a little mild, so I'll have to stop short of calling this a white-out.

Conclusion: Snow, sleet, rain will make for a messy Thanksgiving week on November 24th.
Stay tuned for more updates, here, on the Weather Centre.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #2

This is the 2nd update to the possible lower Great Lakes snow event on Nov. 23rd or 25th.

It looks like that the area may experience a light snowfall on the 23rd and same on the 25th.

However, a different area of attention is on the Southeast.
A cold front moving through the area will slow down laying down precip over a couple days' span.
I predict that the precip will be pretty much all rain.
Maybe some sleet closer up north and close to the front, but mainly rain.

The next update will be later tonight.
Due to current conditions, it may be the final update and this will transition over to a Potential Southeast Rain event.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #1

Hello everyone! This is an update to the Possible Lower Great Lakes' first snow in Chicago, maybe Detroit. I know Chicago hasn't had its first flakes yet.

Let's get down to business. Yesterday I told you about how there would likely be some changes in the Long Range GFS model run I saw? Well, it changed in a matter of 10 hours.

Now, it appears the precip will begin in the Ohio Valley and rapidly intensify as it develops as a cold front.

It looks like, for right now, Chicago won't be getting any snow for November 23rd.

HOWEVER! On an extended run of the GFS, I noticed two storm systems sliding through on November 25th. They came through the Lower Great Lakes. They were relatively minor and wouldn't put down any amount more than 4 inches in outlying areas of Chicago.

Additionally, I saw a much more potent cold front that really was intense. It appeared on the models as orange. I would relate that to an inch of snow an hour if the weather was cold enough.

I know how some kids are jealous in Chicago and some are happy in the Ohio Valley. But, there is a new graph I just checked.

The temperature graph on the GFS indicated that Temperatures may be too warm up in the clouds to produce snow. I would expect a mix in all areas, with maybe a majority of flakes right by the front.

In conclusion, No snow Nov. 23rd, Snow the 25th for the Great Lakes. Ohio Valley, keep an eye out for both those days.