Friday, January 7, 2011

Midwest/ East Coast Storm Analysis 1/7/11 afternoon

First up, we'll check out the new models.

The ECMWF, a leader in recent days but faltering in the last couple runs, says now that the storm will shoot out of Mexico, scrape the Gulf Coast, and move up the East Coast. However, the ECMWF model says the storm will be away from land enough so not much effect will be brought.

For the GFS, a wobbly model in the last few runs straying away from the ECMWF model at points, says that it will hug the Gulf Coast, move up the Southeast coast and fire away from land, preventing a East Coast storm.

The UKMET model's early indications say that the storm will go with the ECMWF track. It is too early for the UKMET to depict the East Coast storm period.

The CMC model is very unique at this point. It starts out scraping the Gulf Coast, then suddenly shoots up north, enough to affect the Great Lakes eastward. A second low forms parallel to it and lets a Nor 'Easter form, enough to that snow will fall onshore.

The NOGAPS model says that 2 lows will form. One will take the original ECMWF track and be a coast-hugger up to North Carolina. The other low will cut through the middle US, affecting the Midwest, Great Lakes with substantial snow. By North Carolina, the two lows combine to form a single low that continues to be a coast-hugger, bombing out with rapidly deepening pressures (a stronger storm).

The WRF model is indicating 2 lows will form. One will take the Gulf Coast track, and although the time frame is short, early indications are that a low, deepening, will possibly move through the Midwest, letting heavy snow form in that region.

The ETA model, better known as the NAM model, a more major model, says that a low will, again, scrape the Gulf Coast. However, since this model time frame is again short, not much can be gathered this far out. However, early indications are that another low may begin moving up the Central US. This will need more monitoring.

DGEX model puts the low much farther north than this morning, providing the Midwest with very nice snow. It also goes absolutely nuts with the East Coast storm and lets it run wild as a coast hugger.

SREF Ensembles have a low coming north as well.

This afternoon report was surprising. The NOGAPS model went back to what it had been saying a couple days ago, and some short-range models are liking that same solution. The CMC is taking a unique track.
When it comes down to it, a couple things can be made clear.
*The Gulf Coast Track will be the track taken. All models indicate that.
*There is now a real possibility of a north track into the Central US.

There are things that remain unclear, though.
*The East Coast Storm.

At This time, will not take model output for Midwest, but I am leaning towards a northerly track ATTM.
For East Coast storm, I will take a GFS/ECMWF track, as I feel there must be error room for this storm.

5/8 models take northerly track.



ECMWF- Comes from Mexico, a bit farther south than before.
CMC- Storm separates into 2 lows. One going up north affecting Great Lakes.
NOGAPS- Low in the gulf, farther north than ECMWF.
GFS- NOGAPS track.
DGEX- Low farther east as it goes up into New England.

Discussion... DGEX may be moving towards the East Coast storm, preventing precipitation in the Great Lakes. At this time, will take a track going through the NOGAPS track and ending a GFS track.


ECMWF- Farther out to sea.
CMC- Coast Hugger.
NOGAPS- Coast Hugger storm as well.
GFS- Starts off as a weak coast hugger, deepens much later than any other model, and goes out to sea.
UKMET- Too early to see.
DGEX- Similar to GFS track.

Discussion... It appears the ECMWF track may be aligning with the GFS track. That is against the CMC and NOGAPS, which show Coast Huggers. For now, will take no east storm solution and go with GFS/ECMWF track.