Monday, December 6, 2010

Official Forecast for Sunday storm

This is my official forecast for this Sunday's upcoming storm.

I think that the areas that will be hit hard will be either between the Great Lakes or the South Central East US.

Additionally, I have pictured below where I think the precip will occur and what type.
Also below, I have created an image about what the intensity may be.
Finally, I have the Forecast Low Track.

To sum it up, I believe that the Great Lakes and Southcentral East US will get significant precip.
Great Lakes- Snow
SC. East- Rain

Significant storm on the way for GL??

This is Chief Meteorologist Andrew, here to bring you up to date on what could turn out as a very impressive storm over the Great Lakes. (NOTE: THIS STORM IS 6 DAYS AWAY. INFO NOW SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN WITH CONFIDENCE, BUT WITH CAUTION.) First, let's pull up the GFS.

The GFS is indicating that the thickness will be more than fine when this proposed system comes through the area. The model is even indicating that an arctic outbreak may be in order, judging by how far down the thickness dips.
The RH, or Relative Humidity, will be much more than abundant for precipitation to be formed. This system will not be like the one the Midwest recently experienced. It may be an extremely significant storm. The GFS even says it'll stick around for possibly the entire day, laying down an impressive total.

The CMC model is projecting the storm to hit the Kentucky-South Illinois area as rain. The thickness indicated will be a toss-up as it sits in Central Illinois for the Great Lakes. The model does show areas such as Chicago getting in on some action, emphasize some. But definitely, the CMC is throwing the bulk of this storm into the Kentucky area.
But wait! The RH meters are indicating a much more concentrated area of abundance in the Great Lakes in the Quad Cities or Chicago. What does this mean? It's precip vs. Relative humidity!
So let's figure this out. Relative Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air. This is up against the CMC showing precip occurring to the South of this mass of humidity. 90% RH usually means precipitation. So what will this mean? We'll have to see as the days go on.

The NOGAPS model says that, with fine thickness, the storm will strike through Central Illinois, missing Madison, WI and Chicago. Relative humidity agrees. But not all hope is lost.

So, let's get on with the ensembles. The most recent ensemble update put out some interesting results. Only a couple predicted the Lake Michigan west side to get it, but many predicted this storm diving south then flying back up to meet the east Great Lakes. About 6 of them predicted that scenario. The others were spread out.

CORRECTION:: New update JUST received. This one tells that the Great Lakes are more in the line of fire of this storm. In fact, 10 of them out of 12 do.

There will be another post shortly with other sites input, be sure to tune in for our official forecast!