Wednesday, December 22, 2010

00z GFS hour 60 (60 hour precip forecast)

00z GFS hour 48 48 hour total precip

Fresh GFS 00z Map (Hour 42, 12 hour precip forecast)

Dec. 22 Evening SnowCAST

video
Graphics by respective companies and groups.

SNOWCAST

A much better quality, all-over better SnowCAST layout will be featured tomorrow if possible.

GFS Model Run Dec. 22 evening





New Year's MW Storm Forecast precip (GFS)


It does seem a lot, and we're going to see if it's going to be rain.
On ensembles, it looks like this ought to be a rain event. But it's into next year. So don't invest any confidence in this yet.

Christmas Storm Midwest 12/22 Evening Update

Right now, the NAM has put the shortwave in place with more energy, thus giving more snow to the Midwest areas outlined in this evening's graphic.

12/22 Evening Graphic Christmas Storm

New Years Storm Potential


Ensembles have been pretty consistent in allowing a storm to move into the Ohio Valley, severely impacting the South Great Lakes and Midwest areas to the close east of the South GL.
Below is a graphic.

It is possible for this to develop due to consistency, so we'll have to see.

Nor'Easter Graphic 12/22 Noon

Nor'Easter Christmas Potential

Looks like New England might get their white Christmas.
The models have taken a turn for New England.

The ensembles are still unsure, and it might be a little over half taking it away from NE.

We'll have to see. Graphic will be posted shortly.

Christmas Storm Update 12/22 Noon

Looks like the Ensembles are deciding to go north. Now, they're on the edge of the Gulf and Louisiana. It's a bit more north than last run.

Dec. 22 Morning Map

Day 3 Analysis

The Christmas Storm low pressure will move through Texas, as winds continue in New England.

12 Hour Forecasts

For 12 hours in advance, the cold front works its way through the South, while high pressure settles over the Gulf of Mexico. Mountain snow and rain in lower elevations continues, very heavy in many occasions.
1 day from today, the Plains will be in a nice lull as the precipitation continues in the West Coast. Low pressure moves onshore in the Southeast, with rain on the east side of the low.
36 hours in the future, The Rockies continue to be battered by precipitation on the West Coast. The low pressure in the Southeast is gone out to sea, as the cold front has stalled right off the Gulf Coast.
2 Days in advance, Up in New England, there is no precipitation, but it will be windy. The cold front off the Gulf of Mexico finally starts to move away from the South. The precipitation finally starts to die down in the Rockies as the low moves away into Texas and Oklahoma, producing heavy precipitation.

Images from HPC

Today's National Forecast

Good morning everyone! Above is your National Forecast for today by the HPC. We've got a cold front moving through the Southern US. It will create precipitation in the Southeast. Back out West, we have our Christmas Storm moving through the California coast. They've already had over a foot of rain, and over 2 feet of snow so far. Flash flooding will occur quickly as the Pineapple Express continues to ravage the west coast. Very heavy snow will occur in the mountains again. Landslides from both forms of precipitation are likely. As high pressure moves in from Canada, the Upper Midwest and Plains will be in a lull of precipitation. Snow and rain will occur in Maine and the New England area.

Current QPF (HPC)

Christmas Nor'easter Will not happen

EDIT: The post is correct. Storm will not occur.
Models, Ensembles taking storm out to sea.