Sunday, September 4, 2011

Still thinking an out to sea Katia- there remains a risk for the US but it appears to be diminishing.

Katia Rapidly Strengthens to Category 2 Hurricane; Track Out to Sea

Katia has strengthened rapidly overnight to a category 2 hurricane as it progresses along its way. The image you see above displays the eye and surrounding convection of Katia. Notice how defined the eye is, but how much stronger the northern side of the storm appears to be than the southern flank of Katia. This is microwave imagery.
I'm thinking that Katia will probably continue to strengthen and reach Category 3 at maximum. After that, Katia will likely curve out to sea as the Azores High breaks in the western portion asa trough moves through. As Katia gains strength, this solution becomes more likely.
Check out these ensemble models- they tell the story.
Disregard the two tracks going towards the US.
The NHC track goes along nicely with this solution.

TS Lee may curve back into Gulf of Mexico for Round Two

We are watching Lee closely for the potential that it may curve down back into the Gulf of Mexico, restrengthen, and fire back into Louisiana for Round 2 of the storm. The NHC believes Lee will travel up the inland reaches of the Eastern Seaboard and dump precipitation there, but as of late Lee appears to be moving due south according to latest infrared imagery. Click on the link below for the latest imagery loop of Lee.