Friday, November 19, 2010

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #6

Good evening everyone! So, it's been 4 hours since I last updated you guys and gals with the latest GFS run. Well, it's been updated again, so here I am to break the news to you.

So, let's start off with who's supposed to get the worst of this.
The thickness will be right all over the Lakes, so no worries for ice and/or rain.
WISCONSIN!!! They will be receiving the brunt of the snow.
I cannot find an accumulation map so far in the future, so i'll estimate that this could be a pretty nice storm. Maybe 6 inches in the Wisconsin area, 8 inches in some spots.

The NWS forecast itself is honestly putting itself in to my forecast.
I did not look at it before I issued all these updates.

Anyways, continuing, I guess thickness does not create all the confidence.

By the way, Wisconsin people, expect freezing rain up north. Watch out.

This has been the 6th update to the possible Great Lakes snow event. Tomorrow morning, there will be another update.

SNOWcast November 19th

Good afternoon!

I am issuing a SNOWcast because I just ran the NAM model and found something that has to be taken note of.

In the next couple days, an intense snow storm will attack the North Plains, carry in to Canada, and continue its track across the diameter of Canada. It will carry Snow up north, but ice pellets down south during the storm's reign.

This has been a SNOWcast, courtesy of The Weather Centre.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #5

Good afternoon everybody! Talk about TGIF.

I just ran the GFS fully. It says passing showers turning in to a nice rain on November 23rd. As it gets closer, it's a pretty good bet for showers.

For the 25th, The GFS is saying a less intense storm will pull through and just skim the North Illinois area but cover Wisconsin.

A lake snow machine will kick in in Michigan after the 25th for a day.

I am running the Long-Range GFS. It says, for the Great Lakes, that after a cold blast, the area will get a very nice warm-up. Still will have to monitor it.

The NAM model shows rain showers for the 23rd.

This isn't much of an update, and very short, but it's a new run from the models.
Enjoy the weekend!

Long Range GFS

Northwest- A low pressure with central pressure of 972mb could occur on Saturday, nov. 27th.

Urgent New England Update

Remember that Low Pressure I told you was supposed to be insane? Well, it disappeared. It literally is gone. However, there is a moderate low pressure that moves in the previous track of the old one then rapidly strengthens as it stalls at sea.

On Nov. 25th, light rain/snow is possible.

That is all.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #4

Good morning everyone. I did run the GFS again this morning just now, and I will tell you my findings.

We're focusing in on the November 25th event first. So, the GFS is playing it out somewhat like this: Light to moderate snow. All precip in North Illinois ONLY, moderate-heavy snow in Wisconsin.

In future runs, this precip spreads in to Michigan.

Why am I mentioning this? Because the thickness is right and the cold front has already passed. This is a fine opportunity for snow to form.

Since the GFS has been hinting at precip for the last 3 days, I'm believing it more and more with each model run.

Alrighty. Moving on to our November 23rd event. If nothing comes out of it, this will be its final update.

The GFS would only display very light precipitation in North Illinois on November 22ND. ONE DAY EARLIER.

Anyways, That precip will be rain, because the thickness is above the maximum level needed for snow.

Conclusion: Light rain on Nov. 22nd, Sticking snow possible on Ill. Wis. borders, snowstorm possible in Wisconsin moving into Michigan.