Saturday, October 29, 2011

Introducing the Storm Mode Alert Statement Hiatus (SMASH)

We are formally introducing the SMASH program into The Weather Centre.
When a big storm like the one the Northeast is currently experiencing occurs, we will issue a SMASH Alert, meaning that updates will mainly be confined to our Facebook Page (
We will post PERIODICAL updates on the blog when SMASH is in effect, but our Facebook page will, by far, have the most information during a SMASH storm.

State of Emergency Declared for Connecticut as state has 435,000 without power

The State of Connecticut is under a state of emergency as nearly half a million residents of the state are without power from this crippling snowstorm.

State of Emergency Declared for New Jersey as Half a Million Without Power

A state of emergency is effective for New Jersey as the 'Octogeddon' continues to crush the Northeast.

It has been reported that 1.5 million people are without power so far with this storm.

13z HRRR gives NYC 12-18 inches of snow

The HRRR short range model is giving New York City 12-18 inches of snow- a far cry from the estimated 4.3 inches the NYC NWS Forecast office is putting out.

For regular updates, go to our Facebook Page on the left sidebar.

Snow Falling in Northeast; Totals Look to Move Above 1 foot

Intellicast Radar
Snow is currently falling over the Northeast as a strong low pressure system progresses along, just outside the coast. Rain is currently more prevalent over the Virginia area, something we were surprised at, as we expected more snow coverage in that area. This system will continue to move along and gain strength. Eventually, a changeover to all snow will occur, and it looks like that changeover will be a crucial factor in totals.
The models continue to spit out accumulations well over a foot for many areas. Here's the suite of models for the northeast:
10z HRRR Model 

6z GFS Model

6z NAM model

All 3 models have different solutions to this snowstorm, but in the end we do have to choose which one will be right. On the top we see the new HRRR model run. The HRRR is a short range model. The HRRR indicates widespread areas of 12-18 inches of snow, with very isolated totals up to 24 inches. This appears to be a fairly good solution, but may be a bit too close to the coast. That does remain to be seen, however.
The GFS has been conservative compared to the NAM for a while now, and we feel that the placement of snowfall is correct; not the amounts. We do feel that the NAM/HRRR have a very similar solution, and since the HRRR is a short range model and has just come in with new data, we believe snowfall totals should be around the NAM/HRRR totals.