Monday, July 22, 2013

Text Forecast for Invest 98 - July 22, 2013

Invest 98 is currently exiting western Africa as a vigorous tropical wave. This is my current prediction for its track, strength and any other additional variables.

Invest 98 is expected to move generally west-northwest as the atmospheric flow for this wave will allow it to progress in that general direction. An intense area of westward winds is observed in the Caribbean, which may hinder projections of a west-northwestward motion. However, the current model consensus is for the WNW track to verify. The top analog tracks for previous tropical cyclones in the immediate vicinity of Invest 98 show a decisive out to sea solution for this system, where it would move northwest and curve around in the Atlantic in the direction of Europe. Ensemble forecasts agree with this proposal.

The lack of entry into the Caribbean indicates this invest will most likely stay below hurricane strength. While I indicated this strength level was possible a few days ago, more recent model forecasts have eliminated that idea. Tropical storm status is certainly attainable for this invest, although the length of time the invest is able to hold the TS title is very much in question.

Landfall potential
The potential of a landfall on the US mainland is low. Any threat of a landfall is greatest in the Mid-Atlantic, which may feel some of the invest's effects as it curves out to sea.