Sunday, June 9, 2013

'Ring of Fire' Pattern Ramps Up Severe Weather Threat

The upcoming weather pattern will signal the start of summer with the Ring of Fire pattern evolving over the Plains, leading to increased chances of severe weather over parts of the nation.

Over the next 10 or more days, we should see development of high pressure over the Plains, leading to that high pressure system settling in over the region and permitting the development of the Ring of Fire. In the Ring of Fire pattern, high pressure fills much of the Plains and sits there for a prolonged period. In response, multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCS's) will form on the edge of this high pressure system (usually the north and east sides of the ridge). It is these MCS's that put the 'fire' in the Ring of Fire. Short range models already have over three MCS's hitting Iowa and Illinois in the next 84 hours, which could lead to over 2 inches of rain in some spots.

The Ring of Fire pattern is considered one of the better patterns for severe weather. It's not a convective system every few days- we're talking instances of possibly more than once MCS each day. No guarantees on if that will happen this time around, but the potential is certainly there.