Saturday, May 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto to Hug East Coast

Tropical Storm Alberto is projected to make a u-turn and head northeast along the East Coast, posing threats to both Carolinas over the next few days before heading towards New England. Right now, I would guess, based on historical tracks, that this storm will likely miss the New England area and head towards the far north Atlantic areas. However, the Carolinas remain in the potential target zone and will have to be monitored.

Probabilities for tropical storm winds are mainly the highest out offshore the Carolinas, but the NHC has designated South Carolina with a 30% - 40% chance of tropical storm winds.

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms in Atlantic

Tropical Storm Alberto has formed in the Atlantic at this time. I do not have any graphics right now for the track and intensity, but it is indeed Alberto.

Risk chart
This is the risk chart concerning Alberto's potential landfall from the Tropical Cyclone Track Probability agency at the Florida State University.

As seen in this satellite image, Alberto does have a strong center and rotating cloud bands, indicating that this system is attempting to acquire tropical characteristics, and it does seem to have achieved that.

More to come.

SPC 4km WRF Depicts Tropical Storm Landfalling in North Carolina Tomorrow Morning

Courtesy of PoliClimate
The SPC's 4km WRF model is projecting Atlantic Invest 93 to make landfall in North Carolina as a tropical storm, with winds just surpassing 60 knots. The NAM is not showing a landfalling system, and until we get into the evening hours, the RAP short range model will likely not have a good handle on the system.

Atlantic Invest 93 Dangerously Close to East Coast

Atlantic Invest 93 is now present in the Atlantic, and located very close to the East Coast, with a small portion of it already on land in the Carolinas. The system does have a 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.

Intensity forecasts do confirm this suspicion, with all models indicating this system to at least become a tropical storm. Beyond that, confidence is pretty low that a hurricane will form. Formation of a tropical storm should happen in the next day or two, with the SPC WRF-NMM actually showing an intense, small and compact circulation of showers and storms with this storm system.


Severe Weather in Plains Today; Enhanced Hail Threat Evident

Overall Severe Weather Threat

Hail Threat
There is a severe weather threat over the Plains today, with large hail being the main threats. Tornado and damaging wind threats are also slightly enhanced.

It is looking as if the atmosphere is going to be moist enough to provide some stronger storms, unlike areas to the east, where the air is extremely dry. As of now, it does appear that instability values are within the 1000 j/kg realm within the slight risk area. However, shearing values in the atmosphere, while they are substantial, are located to the west. I do believe that, with time, we should see these shearing values shift east. The reason they are currently to the west is that there is indeed a dry line just off the Rocky Mountain range, as seen below.

There is a dryline just off the Rockies and a cold front trailing into the Southwest. I am thinking that this cold front will be able to catch up with the dry line and spark thunderstorms later in the afternoon. According to the SPC's WRF-NMM, development should really start at around 5:00 PM CDT, and intensify throughout the evening and late evening hours.

Storm Spot: Concordia, Kansas to Hastings, Nebraska
(Storm Spot serves as an indicator for the best thunderstorms and severe weather)